What will it look like if the far right agenda in Israel gets a big boost from Obama’s nefarious doings? Much will depend on whether there’s more to come from Obama - he has said he’ll support no more UN actions that ‘harm’ Israel - but if he sees the Israeli far right as ‘harming’ Israel [which he clearly does] then that’s a pretty meaningless assurance. More ‘action’ from Obama would indicate he’s pursuing a plan that will extend past January 20 - that would represent an open threat to Israeli security and lend credence to a right wing call to be ‘aggressive’ - Bennett has already declared the two state solution dead and for annexation of Area C - a full on UN attack led by Obama/EU that runs counter to Trump policy would force many Israelis to view this aggressive response as ‘reasonable’. Progressives like Obama seem convinced that there’s some restive Israeli left wing majority that thinks like him but are ‘trapped’ behind a right wing wall of fear mongering and just waiting for a chance to break out - but Gaza changed things - concessions get you nothing but increased militancy - strength is what matters - the ‘dovish’ Oslo elements have been repudiated by reality. But how popular are Bennett’s views? And what does it mean to annex Area C?
Area C comprises most of the West Bank - is where I believe all settlements are but is largely undeveloped and uninhabited [?] - is home to only about 80,000 Palestinians - most palestinians live in the urban centres of areas A and B - I belive Area C is administered by the Israeli military. Apparently area C is land to be divvied up by any final status agreement - Israel will retain the settlements and any vital military real estate [Jordan Valley etc etc] and Palestinians would get what’s left over. Since much of Area C is vital military real estate, if one feels a two state solution is no longer possible, annexing much of Area C becomes pretty much a necessity for Israel. Absorbing the 80,000 Palestinians of Area C should be doable - the problem of course is what about the millions of Palestinians living in areas A and B? Can’t just wall them off obviously. Bennett I take it thinks the palestinian cities will be become fully autonomous, self-governed Palestinian regions - he seems to think Palestinians will be free to move about and between these regions, and Gaza, as they wish [very hard to see how that would work]. Bennett says Palestinians already have a state, Gaza, and there’s no need for Israel to continue to beat its head against the wall of Palestinian intransigence and militancy in trying to create another one in the West Bank. Anyway, in short that’s the story of annexing Area C.
Given that the US left is clearly becoming more and more anti-Israel in its sympathies and therefore cannot be relied upon to support Israel down the road, you can see how many Israelis, sick and tired of the peace process, of the UN, of the EU and viewing the coming Trump administration as a window of opportunity that will only be open for so long, might feel the appeal of a unilateral action that settles the Palestinian question once and for all. The blowback will be fierce - but with Trump in your corner and the Sunni Arab states increasingly consumed with worries about Iran and no doubt secretly sick and tired of the palestinians themselves - who knows, maybe it is doable. And if the recent UN perfidy was just the first step in a process Obama plans to pursue in his post-presidency, the likelihood of it increases dramatically.
