So let’s try and imagine what happens should Trump, right off the back, move the embassy to Jerusalem. Of course the palestinians will erupt in a paroxysm of victimhood and grievance mongering - that’s guaranteed since Kerry etc etc have said that’s what will happen so if it doesn't happen the Palestinians will look ridiculous - which leads us immediately to the first interesting thing to consider - how does the paroxysm of victimhood play out when you have a president who doesn't care about said histrionics? The protests can’t carry on forever - and you really can't escalate them beyond a certain point - so if Trump holds his ground and says ‘scream all ya want, I ain't listening’ - what happens then? If the protests wither away after a few weeks and the embassy becomes a reality, the Palestinians and Fatah will look weak and ridiculous - because remember all we’re talking about here is an embassy move that, if one truly believes in a two state solution, in real terms changes absolutely nothing on the ground - the outrage is all rhetoric, all histrionics - if Trump and Netanyahu wait out the spectacle, Fatah looks bad.
Which leads to the next interesting question: what does Hamas do? On the surface one thinks of course they’ll join in - but do they really want another war with Israel? Taking it further though, if they start to see that Trump is not going to cave, that Abbas and Fatah start looking weak and ridiculous - that’s a win for them - they're the strong horse by default - they of course have to mount some token resistance, but is there not a good chance they see the advantage lurking for them here and hold back? I’d say yes.
Of course, the IDF gets tricked into killing a few protesters - or, as has happened before, the Palestinians stage some atrocity - then things change and hard to know how it plays out after that - still, interesting considerations I’d say. I do find myself hoping that Trump makes the move because I very much want to see what happens - no doubt quite an irresponsible point of view - still, one feels this mess is coming to a head regardless, so why not let it be now.
Of course, the IDF gets tricked into killing a few protesters - or, as has happened before, the Palestinians stage some atrocity - then things change and hard to know how it plays out after that - still, interesting considerations I’d say. I do find myself hoping that Trump makes the move because I very much want to see what happens - no doubt quite an irresponsible point of view - still, one feels this mess is coming to a head regardless, so why not let it be now.
