For the first time I took a close look at a detailed map of Jerusalem and the spread of settlements in East Jerusalem - mainly because 500 homes in various settlement neighbourhoods have just been approved by the municipality of Jerusalem [I didn't know the municipality had this kind of autonomy], a decision that had been put off until Trump was in power. I really do wish Israeli newspapers, their english editions anyways, would include maps with articles dealing with settlements - maps give one a much better sense of things.
And the sense I get re settlements? Clearly on the part of some the goal is to make a united Jerusalem as the Israeli capital a fait accompli - at the very least the goal looks to be to render the old city Israeli and leave any future Palestinian control of East Jerusalem ‘tentative’ - ie only attached to any putative Palestinian state in a very fragile way - in many ways, contiguous in name only.
Do I have a problem with this? No - because I interpret this as Israel saying to the Palestinians that things will go better for them if they engage in serious negotiations - but the longer they refuse to do that the worse it’s gonna get for them - and in the end, we’re gonna get what we want regardless. It looks to me that 20, 30 years of Palestinian leadership playing political games to try and demonize Israel and isolate it in the eyes of the ‘world community’ have left them in an extremely vulnerable and weak position. The ‘strategy’ was flawed for one obvious reason - intransigence and continuing violence would push Israel further to the right and make it much less tolerant of compromises - and that only serves Palestinian interests if America is willing to abandon Israel - and even an Israel hating leftist like Obama couldn't make that happen until the very end of his term when it no longer mattered. Now they’re stuck in a weak position and having to deal with Trump - and if the Trump administration recognises this weakness and decides to play hardball? If Abbas is smart he’ll run to that negotiating table as quickly as possible with a serious proposal that he knows Israel would be open to - if they choose intifada? Hard to picture a scenario where it goes well for them - unless of course Trump goes completely soft and at the moment that looks unlikely.
One suspects that all the dire warnings from Obama and Kerry and Abbas etc etc about the violence that will erupt should the embassy be moved is an attempt to keep hidden how weak the Palestinian position is - one could argue that Israel is on the verge of a big win here and the Israel haters are dreading the moment. And it’s not just because you’ve switched out an anti-Israel president with a pro-Israel one - it’s also about the Muslim world being a mess and the rise of Iran - the Arab street may still hate Israel, but one imagines many Arab leaders realise that ‘friendly’ relations with Israel [behind the scenes of course] could be a boon for them - and I’m guessing many of them are sick and tired of the Palestinian question regardless.
[another way to look at it - Palestinians used a feigned belief in a two state solution as a ploy to lure Israel into negotiations that were doomed to fail, at which point they reached out to ‘world opinion’ and painted Israel as the malefactor - Israel was no doubt aware of this all along but couldn’t do anything about it because that would seem to confirm the Palestinian propaganda - instead they played along while slowly creating facts on the ground that would make walking away from a two state solution a real possibility - which is where we are now: Palestinian bluff called, stakes dramatically raised - all that’s required is a backer willing to bankroll the Israeli move - enter Trump]
