What happens in Afghanistan if Iraq goes south? I ask in response to article by one of the Kagans that references Iraq quite often as a baseline and guide to COIN operations in Afghanistan and another addition by Ricks to his ongoing 'The Unravelling of Iraq' series where he quotes one of the most influential Iraqi mayors as saying civil war still the most likely outcome of the Iraq experiment.
Assuming Obama can't go small in Afghanistan - or withdraw outright - and therefore will promote some policy that guarantees American COIN operations there for at least another five years - what will it mean to the credibility of those operations should Iraq unwind in the meantime? The implications would be quite damaging, right? The conclusion one would be inclined to draw is that unless you change the underlying culture of an environment any good wrought by COIN risks becoming in the end merely cosmetic.
Don't believe I've read anyone speculating on the consequences of this scenario - which, seeing as how it's hardly a far-fetched notion, seems odd.
