Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Two things: poll in Israel says 66% favour military action against Iran should the need arise; Rahm Emanuel states or insinuates that Obama will insist that progress on Iranian threat dependent on progress re Palestinians - as I've said before I would be shocked if Israel agreed to what Emanuel is suggesting - in fact, if I'm right on the dynamics here, even if it were possible Iran will never allow such a thing to happen - their ambitions require the leverage of a Palestinian problem - I mean, they will move towards nuclear status regardless, but unrest in the Mideast, whether in the form of Islamic militancy or a vulnerable and therefore aggresive Israel, suits their wider goals. If Israel is forced to back down viz Iran then the compensation they will demand is freedom to settle the Palestinian problem as they see fit; likewise, if Israel is compelled to move against Iran, the price they will pay is making concessions on Palestinian issue - I don't see anyway around this reasoning, Iran is the crux and I'm convinced this is exactly how Israel sees it - and yet Obama seems to want his cake and the eating thereof too. This is doomed to get ugly - and likely to demonstrate once again the historical certainty that you cannot conduct a viable foreign policy from a position of weakness.
