Tuesday, July 22, 2014

So, why did Putin just not admit that pro-Russian militants accidentally shot down the Malaysian jet? Since the US military has done the exact same thing in the past that gives you some cover - you don’t have to admit to supplying the rebels with the SA-11 launcher if indeed you did since there’s strong evidence they captured one on their own a few weeks ago and had managed to make it operational - so why not just admit to the awful mistake and move on from there?

Well - could be they may know that evidence will emerge tying Russia directly to the SA-11 unit and therefore lying about it would only make a bad situation worse - still, we all know Russia is supplying the rebels with heavy arms so why continue to deny the complicity and that a tragic mistake was made?

Two reasons I suspect - an admission of responsibility would necessarily entail an expression of remorse and Putin no doubt feels that would threaten the perception of him as a strong leader - an expression of remorse would lead him down a ‘sentimental’ path that does not fit well with his plans for the Ukraine in particular and the idea of a resurgent Russia in general. In other words, he has no intention of retreating viz Ukraine and since a large part of his goals amount to showing the EU and Obama as weak, irresolute things, hollow powers that cannot be trusted as allies so as to, along with China and Iran, subvert the American dominated world order, by denying complicity and putting out this seemingly absurd theory that Ukraine brought the plane down Putin is essentially calling the West’s bluff - he’s betting, even with 300 innocent lives lost, that the EU and Obama will still fall far short of the threats they're intimating and that will feed the perception of an America dominated West in decline.

Now, it could just be that Putin believes that the EU has no business involving itself in Ukraine and therefore they're ultimately responsible for this mess and so why should he apologize for that - that’s possible - but I'm guessing it’s rather that since his whole plan here all along was to not only regain some control over Ukraine but to also make the EU and Obama look weak in the process, if indeed those now expressing outrage and issuing threats against Russia do not follow through on those threats, then that’s the exact outcome he will have achieved. Notice how quiet China’s being - that’s because they see clearly how damaging all this could be to American and EU credibility if things play out this way and that serves their interests perfectly.