Trouble brewing between Big Dragon and its neighbours in the unquiet sea in wake of Obama visit raises interesting points - with Vietnam trying to block Chinese oil rig being planted in disputed waters and Philippines taking into custody a Chinese fishing boat they say intruded upon and illegally fished its sovereign waters people are asking if a show of support by Obama during his visit has emboldened them - possibly. With China's 'three warfares' strategy and its attempt to create dubious legal realities or givens on the ground [or water] becoming clear to everybody it's possible Vietnam and the Philippines are trusting in Obama's promises and forcing counter claims to China's unilateralism - it's also possible this push back is being done in concert with the US, that a back room agreement has been reached to systematically counter or challenge China's attempt to unilaterally create dubious legal givens - both these things could be behind these conflicts. There is though a third option that most are not considering - that China's wary neighbors are testing Obama's resolve, feeling out whether his security promises were real or just words - because when you think about it, for these countries to forge a coherent strategy going forward to counter Chinese aggression they need to know whether or not Obama is going to be there for them - therefore these actions could be just as much about testing Obama as challenging Chinese unilateralism.
One thing for sure, as I've said often before and other's too, belief in the peaceful rise of China was always more about vain hopes or dearly embraced delusions than realistic analysis - conflict is inevitable, the only question is how hot, how big and how scary - if an American president makes the right moves, deterrence could work to keep the lid on this thing and buy time for political reforms to take root in the Middle Kingdom - but unfortunately, for one thing, I've always felt there's virtually no chance the politburo with its tentacles stretching out everywhere ever or at least willingly allows reform to take root - and secondly, regardless, I don't believe for one second that Obama is that president - more importantly, neither does the PLA I imagine.
