The spike in violence in eastern Ukraine against Russian sympathizers, with one official in Kiev stating that the insurgents will be 'exterminated', is interesting - in sense that the election of the chocolate tycoon, who has said he wants to work with the EU and Russia to calm things, a gesture which Putin has welcomed, however disingenuously, well, you'd think that'd lead to a tamping down on force against the Russophiles rather than a sharp spike up - which suggests to me that Ukrainian nationalists, in control of the temporary gov't, maybe do not trust Mr Chocolate to stand firm against Putin's intentions, whatever they may be - because this spike in force risks escalating quickly into something that draws Putin in in a much more decisive way - which, again, to me only makes sense if the Ukrainian ultra nationalists are convinced Mr Chocolate intends to conceded something to Putin [one assumes some sort of federation] which is the political solution ol' Vlad has been looking for.
It's very murky - but I'm not seeing anything yet that tells me Putin's gambit has gone awry or twisted beyond his control - I still think he's in the catbird seat here - he knows better than anyone in the West how corrupt and vulnerable a polity Ukraine is and therefore I assume knows where and how to apply pressure. Could all go south on him, sure - and if he starts talking about the 'new gov't' in ways that definitely sound conciliatory that might indeed suggest control has slipped away form him - but I'm not seeing that yet and the spike in violence by the ultra nationalists, to my mind anyways, seems to confirm that.
[or is Mr Chocolate calling the shots here? Some are suggesting that - but he hasn't been sworn in yet - although who knows if that matters in a place like Ukraine - still, even if he is behind the spike it doesn't make sense to me - unless of course they've determined Putin's all bravado here and they're calling his bluff and pushing in all their chips, relatively speaking - but I've said and fully believe Putin cannot let himself look like he's backing down, like he's lost since so much of the point of all this was perceptual - he can try and claim he had nothing to do with the pro-Russia insurgents but no one believes that - then again he does still have Crimea so I guess if things start to turn against him in the East one could view it as a draw and that will be good enough, for now - but I'm not sold on that - there's another play coming seems to me]
It's very murky - but I'm not seeing anything yet that tells me Putin's gambit has gone awry or twisted beyond his control - I still think he's in the catbird seat here - he knows better than anyone in the West how corrupt and vulnerable a polity Ukraine is and therefore I assume knows where and how to apply pressure. Could all go south on him, sure - and if he starts talking about the 'new gov't' in ways that definitely sound conciliatory that might indeed suggest control has slipped away form him - but I'm not seeing that yet and the spike in violence by the ultra nationalists, to my mind anyways, seems to confirm that.
[or is Mr Chocolate calling the shots here? Some are suggesting that - but he hasn't been sworn in yet - although who knows if that matters in a place like Ukraine - still, even if he is behind the spike it doesn't make sense to me - unless of course they've determined Putin's all bravado here and they're calling his bluff and pushing in all their chips, relatively speaking - but I've said and fully believe Putin cannot let himself look like he's backing down, like he's lost since so much of the point of all this was perceptual - he can try and claim he had nothing to do with the pro-Russia insurgents but no one believes that - then again he does still have Crimea so I guess if things start to turn against him in the East one could view it as a draw and that will be good enough, for now - but I'm not sold on that - there's another play coming seems to me]
