Wait a bloody second - did I get the Ukraine question all wrong? What's this about a deal agreed to between the gov't and the opposition, brokered by the EU and for which Obama is taking credit because he claims his 'threat' motivated Yanukovich to compromise? And that Putin, in a conversation with Obama, has agreed that efforts must be made to make sure this agreement works?
Sorry, that does't add up - that flat out doesn't add up. Putin is not giving up the Ukraine, and allowing a EU sponsored deal to move forward would be giving up the Ukraine - I don't know what the hell Yanukovich is up to here, but there's no way Putin just gave him 10 billion so he can sidle on over to the EU. Something's going on here. This is a divided country where the somewhat smaller western half sees itself as European, the somewhat larger eastern half as Russian - I believe Russian is the spoken language in about 50% of households and that's why Yanukovich won the election, an election that by all accounts was apparently legitimate [although who really knows]. No way Putin is just gonna allow the EU and Obama to stroll in and win the day.
I'm very curious to see what happens once these silly Olympics are finished with because there's no way this story ends like this. No way.
[but what if Yanukovich, either out of fear or 'cunning' has actually betrayed Putin? Boy, hard to believe - but, like I said, if true that won't be the end of the story - it's this ostensibly civil and cooperative conversation between Obama and Putin that's got me convinced schemes are unfolding because there's no way Putin just spent 50 billion on the Olympics to aggrandize himself and Russia plus the billions he handed over to Yanukovich only to have the EU and Obama now ride gloriously in as saviors of the Ukraine - no way - the next week should prove interesting]
[now I'm reading reports that seem to suggest the gov't has left Kiev, the police are not guarding buildings, the military is nowhere to be seen - am I really supposed to believe western Ukraine has just magically seceded from eastern Ukraine and now let's all just go about our business? C'mon - something's afoot - this would be like if during China's Olympics a civil war-like crisis had broken out in Taiwan between forces wanting unification with the mainland and those leaning to America and Bush had stepped in and resolved the issue in America's favor and China in response simply said 'okay, thanks' - something's gotta be coming - is this Putin setting up situation where he says 'I know the protesters will overreact, become unruly, invite chaos - and then I'll have my pretext to move in'? Or is this an indication that Ukranian security forces have sided with the opposition? Or, with Kiev stuck way up north and landlocked, is this Putin saying 'I control the key ports of Odessa and Sevastapol so good luck surviving without access to the Black Sea'?]
[it's now clear police and military made unequivocal decision not to get involved, which amounts to a de facto siding with the opposition - it also appears that Ukrainian parliament has voted to impeach Yanukovich with 325 for and I guess 125 against - pretty strong repudiation of Russian backed president - and Tymoshenko has been released from prison - is it actually possible that Putin has lost Ukraine? Kind of sounding that way - although I'm still saying many pages yet to be turned in this story - to me Putin still has the trump cards: control of natural gas, on which Ukraine is dependent; control of access to the Black Sea; bulk of Ukrainian economic output comes from Russophile east - all Kiev and west have is hope the EU will save them from the hardships Putin could bring to bear should the country split up - not an enviable position - I mean, what good is Ukraine to the EU if the Crimea and Sevastopol don't come with it?]
[it should also be noted that just because 325 voted to oust Yanukovich it doesn't mean they all support moving towards EU and away from Russia - how many simply thought getting rid of him was the best way to quickly bring the crisis to a halt before things really started to go downhill? What if for many of the 325 this is just about buying time? But then why release Tymoshenko? Russophiles don't see her as a real threat and the 'goodwill' gesture distracts attention from real purpose? I dunno - like I said, several pages yet to be turned here]
[have not seen Tymoshenko speech, have read live tweets of excerpts - girl does have a messianic knack for spinning a crowd - but question remains: how broad is this appeal across Ukraine? One imagines answer to that question will determine much of how this plays out - but my impression is people are failing to realise just how important Ukraine is to Putin's plans - no way he can simply let it go, especially with half the country sympathetic to remaining loyal to Russia]
Sorry, that does't add up - that flat out doesn't add up. Putin is not giving up the Ukraine, and allowing a EU sponsored deal to move forward would be giving up the Ukraine - I don't know what the hell Yanukovich is up to here, but there's no way Putin just gave him 10 billion so he can sidle on over to the EU. Something's going on here. This is a divided country where the somewhat smaller western half sees itself as European, the somewhat larger eastern half as Russian - I believe Russian is the spoken language in about 50% of households and that's why Yanukovich won the election, an election that by all accounts was apparently legitimate [although who really knows]. No way Putin is just gonna allow the EU and Obama to stroll in and win the day.
I'm very curious to see what happens once these silly Olympics are finished with because there's no way this story ends like this. No way.
[but what if Yanukovich, either out of fear or 'cunning' has actually betrayed Putin? Boy, hard to believe - but, like I said, if true that won't be the end of the story - it's this ostensibly civil and cooperative conversation between Obama and Putin that's got me convinced schemes are unfolding because there's no way Putin just spent 50 billion on the Olympics to aggrandize himself and Russia plus the billions he handed over to Yanukovich only to have the EU and Obama now ride gloriously in as saviors of the Ukraine - no way - the next week should prove interesting]
[now I'm reading reports that seem to suggest the gov't has left Kiev, the police are not guarding buildings, the military is nowhere to be seen - am I really supposed to believe western Ukraine has just magically seceded from eastern Ukraine and now let's all just go about our business? C'mon - something's afoot - this would be like if during China's Olympics a civil war-like crisis had broken out in Taiwan between forces wanting unification with the mainland and those leaning to America and Bush had stepped in and resolved the issue in America's favor and China in response simply said 'okay, thanks' - something's gotta be coming - is this Putin setting up situation where he says 'I know the protesters will overreact, become unruly, invite chaos - and then I'll have my pretext to move in'? Or is this an indication that Ukranian security forces have sided with the opposition? Or, with Kiev stuck way up north and landlocked, is this Putin saying 'I control the key ports of Odessa and Sevastapol so good luck surviving without access to the Black Sea'?]
[it's now clear police and military made unequivocal decision not to get involved, which amounts to a de facto siding with the opposition - it also appears that Ukrainian parliament has voted to impeach Yanukovich with 325 for and I guess 125 against - pretty strong repudiation of Russian backed president - and Tymoshenko has been released from prison - is it actually possible that Putin has lost Ukraine? Kind of sounding that way - although I'm still saying many pages yet to be turned in this story - to me Putin still has the trump cards: control of natural gas, on which Ukraine is dependent; control of access to the Black Sea; bulk of Ukrainian economic output comes from Russophile east - all Kiev and west have is hope the EU will save them from the hardships Putin could bring to bear should the country split up - not an enviable position - I mean, what good is Ukraine to the EU if the Crimea and Sevastopol don't come with it?]
[it should also be noted that just because 325 voted to oust Yanukovich it doesn't mean they all support moving towards EU and away from Russia - how many simply thought getting rid of him was the best way to quickly bring the crisis to a halt before things really started to go downhill? What if for many of the 325 this is just about buying time? But then why release Tymoshenko? Russophiles don't see her as a real threat and the 'goodwill' gesture distracts attention from real purpose? I dunno - like I said, several pages yet to be turned here]
[have not seen Tymoshenko speech, have read live tweets of excerpts - girl does have a messianic knack for spinning a crowd - but question remains: how broad is this appeal across Ukraine? One imagines answer to that question will determine much of how this plays out - but my impression is people are failing to realise just how important Ukraine is to Putin's plans - no way he can simply let it go, especially with half the country sympathetic to remaining loyal to Russia]
