So, Putin's response so far has been fairly subdued, even giving impression he's willing to work with the EU to stabilize things and find a solution - does this mean people who thought a significant east versus west crisis was in the offing here were wrong and that Putin's fortunes indeed have been knocked down a few pegs and he really doesn't have a lot of good options? Or does this mean he's playing possum knowing that the new normal in the Ukraine is very unstable, that the economy is very vulnerable and would not react well to losing the east and therefore is hardly a golden prize waiting to be won if you're the EU, and that the possibility of extremists in the west coming to the fore and creating a security environment that Putin can exploit is very real? I'd still say it's the latter. Putin's rule is based on the perception of him as a strong leader slowly returning Russia to something resembling the putative greatness of it's past - losing the Ukraine does not at all fit that narrative - so I'm still expecting something 'big' - most are focusing on the Crimea being absorbed into Russia proper, but I tend to think that would just be the first move, a prelude to the fostering of a separatist movement maybe even the establishment of a sort of rump parliament if you will in the east.
Either that or Putin is indeed stuck with the illusions that undergird much of his maneuvering now having been exposed - the illusion being, once you get past the special interests who profit greatly from being close to Russia, for the average person on the street the West has more to offer than an irredentist Moscow does - although, as said before, breaking ties with Russia will at first and for awhile bring much more hardship than gain to a Westernized Kiev - and that's the weak spot Putin will be striking at should he decide he has no choice but to play hardball.
[Putin orders large troop mobilization for 'exercises' on Ukraine border - doesn't fit Putin's profile that this would just be a show of strength - Putin is not Obama, indeed he seems to revel in that fact, it's become part of his public persona - I see invasion as highly unlikely, rather figure Putin sees a security situation arising, possibly because Moscow has manufactured it, that he can exploit towards some tangible 'gain' - Kerry has made strong statement warning Russia against violating Ukrainian sovereignty - this seems ill advised since no one really respects Obama's threats - of course you have to 'support' Ukrainian aspirations, but seems much wiser, especially if you've established a reputation for being weak as Obama has, to play it close to the vest until you get a clearer idea of what exactly Putin has in mind - after all, it's not like Ukraine is some wonderful prize waiting to be won here, double so if the Crimea and much of the east don't come with it - unlike with Soviets it's not vital that we push back against this limited Russian hegemony but it is vital that we do not come across as looking weak and ineffectual in relation to it because such an impression would be exactly the payoff Putin would be looking to exploit here - the only real gain Putin can attain here is one that appears to come at America's expense - his influence is directly proportional to the appearance of Obama's lacking thereof - therefore, if you're not a believer in American power, which Obama clearly isn't, it's then at the very least incumbent on you as president not to allow yourself to stumble into situations where 'enemies' can exploit that vulnerability - unfortunately, as we saw in Syria, as we're seeing I believe with 'negotiations' with Iran and as I think we're seeing increasingly in the China Sea, Obama is failing at that very least of things - in essence, Obama governs as president of America like a person who really doesn't want to be president of a country like America - I don't think he likes the place much - huge problem is he seems to see this as a virtue, not a glaring weakness - needless to say that's not how our enemies see it - analogy I've used before: it's as if by a series of twists of fate Obama has become CEO of company that sells a product he dislikes, doesn't approve of - seeing this, as a shareholder of this company you of course ask yourself how long can we stay profitable under this guy's leadership? not long - and on the contrary as a competitor of this company you say: thank you so very much]
Either that or Putin is indeed stuck with the illusions that undergird much of his maneuvering now having been exposed - the illusion being, once you get past the special interests who profit greatly from being close to Russia, for the average person on the street the West has more to offer than an irredentist Moscow does - although, as said before, breaking ties with Russia will at first and for awhile bring much more hardship than gain to a Westernized Kiev - and that's the weak spot Putin will be striking at should he decide he has no choice but to play hardball.
[Putin orders large troop mobilization for 'exercises' on Ukraine border - doesn't fit Putin's profile that this would just be a show of strength - Putin is not Obama, indeed he seems to revel in that fact, it's become part of his public persona - I see invasion as highly unlikely, rather figure Putin sees a security situation arising, possibly because Moscow has manufactured it, that he can exploit towards some tangible 'gain' - Kerry has made strong statement warning Russia against violating Ukrainian sovereignty - this seems ill advised since no one really respects Obama's threats - of course you have to 'support' Ukrainian aspirations, but seems much wiser, especially if you've established a reputation for being weak as Obama has, to play it close to the vest until you get a clearer idea of what exactly Putin has in mind - after all, it's not like Ukraine is some wonderful prize waiting to be won here, double so if the Crimea and much of the east don't come with it - unlike with Soviets it's not vital that we push back against this limited Russian hegemony but it is vital that we do not come across as looking weak and ineffectual in relation to it because such an impression would be exactly the payoff Putin would be looking to exploit here - the only real gain Putin can attain here is one that appears to come at America's expense - his influence is directly proportional to the appearance of Obama's lacking thereof - therefore, if you're not a believer in American power, which Obama clearly isn't, it's then at the very least incumbent on you as president not to allow yourself to stumble into situations where 'enemies' can exploit that vulnerability - unfortunately, as we saw in Syria, as we're seeing I believe with 'negotiations' with Iran and as I think we're seeing increasingly in the China Sea, Obama is failing at that very least of things - in essence, Obama governs as president of America like a person who really doesn't want to be president of a country like America - I don't think he likes the place much - huge problem is he seems to see this as a virtue, not a glaring weakness - needless to say that's not how our enemies see it - analogy I've used before: it's as if by a series of twists of fate Obama has become CEO of company that sells a product he dislikes, doesn't approve of - seeing this, as a shareholder of this company you of course ask yourself how long can we stay profitable under this guy's leadership? not long - and on the contrary as a competitor of this company you say: thank you so very much]
