With a nuke deal with Iran now seemingly imminent and uber skeptics like myself viewing these antics like Plato's cave dweller gazing at shadows - what would incline me towards a more favorable take on these charades? Like Israel, I'd want to see work on the Plutonium reactor shutdown and all enrichment stopped - and although Israel wants the destruction of centrifuges to begin immediately I'm not sure I need to see that step just yet since to be reasonable Iran would have to hold something back viz further negotiations. If I see these things, I might be moved to give the deal a reluctant benefit of the doubt for a brief period of let's say six months - guess much would also depend on what kind of verification protocols were put in place, especially with reports floating about regarding secret processing facilities - verification is one of those tough things to consider for a person on the outside looking in because you just can't know how good or reliable US or Israeli intelligence is concerning what's actually going on in Iran. That being said, pretty sure a complete end to enrichment and the plutonium reactor going bye bye would be my minimum requirements for treating the deal as something possibly legitimate - maybe also the handing over of the 20% enriched uranium they now have.
[what are odds you see something like this? Slim to none - as I've said before, way I see it Obama needs an agreement that will hold regardless of whether or not it does what it intends so he's not forced into an embrace of the military option or left enduring the humiliation of backing away from his promises thereof - and the only way that happens is if Iran is actually serious about abandoning its nuclear ambitions in order to achieve a detente with America, which I judge highly unlikely - or if there's enough wiggle room and ambiguity in the agreement that Iran feels they're gonna get to have their cake and eat it too - understand, if both Obama and Iran's goal here is to keep Israel in check until, as with North Korea, it's too late to do anything about what Iran's real intentions are, then any deal that doesn't securely slam the door on enrichment will be 'bad' from Israel's point of view]
[what are odds you see something like this? Slim to none - as I've said before, way I see it Obama needs an agreement that will hold regardless of whether or not it does what it intends so he's not forced into an embrace of the military option or left enduring the humiliation of backing away from his promises thereof - and the only way that happens is if Iran is actually serious about abandoning its nuclear ambitions in order to achieve a detente with America, which I judge highly unlikely - or if there's enough wiggle room and ambiguity in the agreement that Iran feels they're gonna get to have their cake and eat it too - understand, if both Obama and Iran's goal here is to keep Israel in check until, as with North Korea, it's too late to do anything about what Iran's real intentions are, then any deal that doesn't securely slam the door on enrichment will be 'bad' from Israel's point of view]
