Sunday, July 28, 2013

Looking like I was wrong - does appear that Netanyahu indeed intends to release Palestinian prisoners in order to get the PLO to the negotiating table - that surprises, I assumed all along it was some kind of ruse but apparently he's serious - but of course he knows that the chances of these negotiations going anywhere are extremely slim, and he must know that he's set up a situation here where if the cabinet votes the release down [a good chance of that happening from what I read] everyone is going to call Israel the villain - and also he's setting up the situation where PLO drags out negotiations till all or most of the prisoners are released then pulls out at end declaring it a victory because of the free prisoners and because they've made Israel look weak in eyes of Arab street. I'm not getting it - unless they've planned out the course the negotiations are going to take and the way prisoners are going to be incrementally released so that at a certain point there'll be no way for the PLO to walk away without looking like the ones who have no real interest in peace - that could be what they're thinking - pretty risky, but I'm willing to be convinced that it's a good play.

update: release passed by cabinet 13-7 - fairly strong support, which suggests to me that something along the lines of strategy outlined above must be in play here - although, if PLO suspects same would not be surprised if they insist on all prisoners being released before negotiations can begin, which far as I'm concerned Israel would be crazy to agree to.