Was struck by two affirmations of my view of China floating to the surface recently - a Chinese naval officer declaring that Obama's vaunted 'Asia pivot' was toothless rhetoric, a show piece without substance, and that China should take the opportunity, with a weak president in the White House, to make a more brazen show of putative power in hopes of settling China Sea 'issues' now - and then Shinzo Abe suggesting China will increasingly come to rely on hyper nationalism as a means of justifying the continuance of the autocracy and as a rhetorical ploy to keep bound growing demands for freedom which is usually the offspring that comes of crawling into bed with capitalism - capitalism implies giving people the right to freely choose what they want - hard to square that with the kind of closed state a communist autocracy requires.
It's strange knowing the PLA's view of Obama's strategic grasp is similar to mine - but not surprising - only people who pay no attention to foreign policy think Obama is doing well in that regard - I always considered the Asia pivot to be nothing but politics and that it was a guarantee that you would not see the necessary resources flowing in that direction to make such a thing possible once the policy had been announced, which is exactly what happened - it's not unlike Obama's Afghanistan policy, which again was just politics as far as I'm concerned - the first rule of counter-insurgency is the target population needs to believe you're in it to win it otherwise they will not commit to necessary changes and sacrifices - you don't append an arbitrary deadline to it - which is what Obama did - Obama needed Afghanistan as a rhetorical tool in order to beat Hillary in 2008 - after that it became merely a question of how to extract himself from that promise without damaging his political brand - thus the phoney 'surge'.
As for the PLA becoming more aggressive, well, to me this is obvious - increasingly China sees itself as a military force to be reckoned with, a military power - and it very much needs its neighbours to view it as such - but there's no muscle on the bone here, there's no proof of it, and there's no tradition of military excellence to draw upon - America has 200 years of military excellence and expertise to draw upon - China has nothing - it's a virtual guarantee that the powers that be within the PLA view this as a significant shortcoming that must be addressed - but regardless of embarrassing comparisons with the US military, the dynamics of the region demand that this shortcoming, this perception be addressed - the dynamics of the region all point to inevitable conflict - whether the conflict escalates into something truly frightening, that's unknowable - that the chances of serious escalation increase the weaker America becomes seems like a given - although one imagines the PLA's thinking on this is the exact opposite ie taking America out of the picture will result in a quick realignment - this not unlike imperial Japan's thinking in the run up to Pearl Harbor.
As for China and democracy, this too seems obvious: the powerful and well placed are getting rich under the status quo - any move towards democracy threatens that privilege for a variety of reasons and so it's irrational to believe the powerful will willingly give up that status quo - therefore they will try and fake it - somehow keep the growing middle class 'happy' even as they're denied the only true happiness of freedom - while at same time keeping the huge, roiling underclasses 'quiet' even as glaring inequalities feed their growing rage and resentment. And on top of that in order to grow the economy the political mavens must somehow encourage a more robust consumerism but you can only do that by offering the middle class more freedom of choice - how do you stop this expectation of freedom from spilling over into the political domain? I have no idea - but probably the bigger problem is that a growing consumerism means more ostentation and displays of vanity etc etc which means the vast inequalities in the society will become more visible, more glaring, more on show - how do you keep the roiling masses of the impoverished countryside from rising up under the aegis of a new maoism against a privileged urban aristocracy increasingly prone to showing off its wealth? How do you control that resentment?
I just don't see how China avoids a domestic crisis of significant proportions - and that could result in god knows what - a neo-maoist regime? democracy? China split up into autonomous provinces? Who knows - but to me the coming of this crisis is as inevitable as the coming of the Civil War was to America. History catches up to you - we try to out run it, out smart it, but it catches up.
