Monday, March 18, 2013

I'd be inclined to say that GOP wistfulness viz Rubio as a way to pump up the hispanic vote is indication that the GOP remains somewhat confused about the way forward. Probably better demographic to target are Asians - they can be won over, not easily, but it's doable - hispanics, like blacks, are culturally predisposed for foreseeable future to vote left and just going with an hispanic candiate won't change that - that's like saying if Condi had led the party in 2012 things would have been different, the black vote would been split etc etc - that's a fantasy - Condi may have done a better job of running an intelligent campaign and may have done a better job of attracting some fence sitters and women away from Obama and therefore may indeed have won - but I doubt very much she would have changed the black/hispanic vote much - certainly not the black. I'm not ruling out Rubio, I'm just saying don't fool yourself into picking the guy simply because he's hispanic - if you're gonna think in those narrow terms better off going with Jindal. I'd say keys for 2016 are: do better with women; do better with youth - you may not be able to win youth vote, but if you pick a candidate who isn't an easy target for youth ridicule, someone who can go on Colbert and hold his own and get laughs, that's just like a win; any candidate who can do those two things will perforce be an easier sell to Asians because it will mean that candidate's 'narrative' is playing well in the media and that the GOP hasn't had since Reagan; and then anybody who can do those three things maybe has a chance of peeling about 5% of the Hispanic vote away from the left - which possibly would be enough. As for African-Americans - forget about it - there's nothing a republican can do to win that demographic over and shouldn't even try because you just end up alienating too much of your base [and, no, not because they're all racists - you just have to go too far left to make it happen and appease too much ideological lunacy in the media - blacks will vote uber left from now til doomsday and there's little that can be done about it - the Hispanic vote on the other hand is potentially more dynamic, potentially more maleable - but we're talking a good 10, 20 years down the road for them - so I'm saying, yes, engage with hispanics, sure - but don't fool yourself into thinking you can swing 2016, 2020 your way simply with grovelling appeals to hispanics - I just don't see that happening].

[this guy has a different take of the black vote - and he may be right - certainly, if an intelligent approach could steal away 10-15% of the black vote from the left that would be a game changer - no doubt I tend to write off the black vote because the monolithic, brain dead group think nature it tends to manifest makes me uneasy - and the spokespersons for the black community have a knack for laughable/grating protestations - the Jesse Jacksons, that moron from MSNBC, the Black Congressional Caucus - these gag inducing uber left blowhards really do not inspire confidence of any sort - so my viewpoint is no doubt tainted and there probably are some soft targets there the GOP could go after with an intelligently nuanced approach]