Possibly I'm wrong on Romney's primary problem - or, at least, it's not as bad as I've been suggesting. Being forced to run to the right is of course a problem, especially against opponents who are hardly Reaganesque in their rightness - Santorum scares women and anyone with a college degree from anywhere other than Oral Roberts University - and Gingrich is, well... Gingrich - these guys feed a perception of republicans that can alienate independents and the spill-off toxicity of that can and is I think hurting Romney - which is why I say the longer he has to directly compete against them the more compromised he becomes. [conservatives didn't seem to get that one of the most damaging aspects of the Limbaugh disaster was his opinons seemed to crudely echo Santorum's own highly problematic thinking on the subject of women and contraception - that so many republicans don't seem to get how bad a thing that is is a bit shocking]
But I've read a few predictions on how the delegate count is panning out and what to expect come April - and the impression is Romney is looking good here, as in the math indicates Santorum and ol' Newt don't have much of a chance. Now, the caution is that there's three rural/evangelical states coming up next week that Santorum could sweep and once again you could have a situation where those reluctant Romney voters who will support him only because he seems inevitable and has the best chance of beating Obama start convincing themselves that gosh darn it maybe Santorum can get 'er done - and then you maybe have another lemming march.
The problem for Santorum is that even if that happens, he's still going to be behind by a significant amount in delegates and April is not only full of states where Romney should do well, but they're winner take all contests to boot. Which means by the end of April Romney could have this thing for all intents and purposes sewn up - which would mean even if Santorum and Gingrich stay in the race Romney can just ignore them and focus his attentions on Obama.
So, potentially, as idiotic as this primary has seemed, it's not necessarily the death march I've been suggesting. Then again, if Santorum sweeps the god fearing states next week and Gingrich drops out and endorses Santorum [more out of intense hatred of Romney than anything else] the death march could be back on. Like I said, if circumstances force Romney to appeal or pander to the base in order to stave off some Santorum rally, that's bad - and likewise, if in the manner of Gingrich Santorum's only workable line of attack on Romney apes the very things Obama will be saying against Romney come the fall, then that as well is not helpful. Remember, the core of Santorum's support is social conservatives and the uneducated working poor - both of those demographics hunger for anti-east coast elitist rhetoric - Santorum has attacked Romney as not being a 'true' conservative but hasn't as far I remember gone Gingrich on Romney's wealth and success yet - that could easily change.
