Monday, February 6, 2012
Am I the only one who found it extremely odd that China vetoed the UN censure of Syria? Don't get me wrong, that China's sympathies lie in that direction I completely understand - but they usually read from the Sun Tzu playbook when it comes to stuff like this which means they want their strategy to sail along relatively unnoticed beneath the radar - which is why I assumed China would abstain and let Russia make itself the leading edge of criticism viz the veto. This seems like very odd behaviour by China to me - if so, what's the motivation? - is it that the veto amounts to a de facto vote of support for Iran [again, nothing in itself surprising about that] and therefore this an indication that China sees a looming attack by Israel on Iran a very real possibility? That's the way I'm reading it - although, what they hope to gain from it is less clear. Are they hoping to dissuade Israel? Do they perceive some advantage in making their strategic aspirations apparent ahead of the act? Is it an indication of some as yet unclear quid pro quo with Russia? Or is it simply a miscalculation - or maybe even just evidence that China's old foreign policy calculations no longer add up and this veto represents an emerging new normal? If the latter that would be just as interesting, and disturbing, as my 'Israel on the verge' interpretation.