So, where we at with Egypt? A bit muddled. Hasn’t gone quite as I thought, but not that far removed I think. Seems to be some question about the persistence of the protests, actual size of them, and who is behind them. Seems to be an issue about the credibility of Al Jazzera’s reporting - stories running that other sources can’t verify, like related protests outside of Cairo. Implication is AJ has an agenda - but whose, other than obvious anti-American, anti-Israeli slant?
That the democracy angle has been over-hyped by the Western media I think is still very much the case. That operatives within the Egyptian gov’t, possibly the military, or at least with the military’s consent, exploited the uprisings as leverage to get rid of Mubarak and his son seems clear too. That Mubarak is toast is not at all clear yet - gone eventually, absolutely - but there are indications that he may be able to ride this thing out so as to leave in a more respectable manner a few months hence. The role played by the Muslim Brotherhood in the continuing protests is not clear, but that there’s some organizing force at work behind the scene seems likely if not indeed obvious - protesters are being supplied nice signs, food, water, transportation by somebody - probably good bet it’s the MB.
I don’t see much to indicate some broad, popular revolution unified by a specific agenda is in the offing - but that someone or some group could hijack current unrest for that purpose still a possibility I’d imagine. Certainly, continuing unrest leads to significant worsening of economic situation which leads to increased discontent - fertile conditions for the MB - and also, to counter that, fertile ground for possible coup - Egypt has a long history of the military stepping in and taking control.
Negotiations are reputedly ongoing concerning a transition phase, naming an intermediate leader, power sharing between factions etc etc [is the MB thinking of what Hezbollah has manged in Lebanon? Israel certainly is] - but I imagine there are no straight roads and the night is very dark in that land. Somebody has the upper hand here - definitely not El Baradei and the putative democratic wave - most likely the military and their chosen man - whether he keeps it or not and how far it extends are probably key questions here.
That Obama was too quick and went too far in marginalizing Mubarak and throwing support behind protesters I think remains true - that that was a serious blunder like to reap grievous consequences down the road I think remains likely - America is going to come out the villain no matter what so the key was to serve the cause of stability in the region as a whole first and foremost, which I think was what Israel's point was all along - it's true there were no good options for America, only degrees of bad, but still Obama's performance here is likely to be seen as left wanting as things progress - he's sliding into Jimmy Carter territory here I'm guessing - well, the left often acted as if he was the second coming of JC.
