I'm surprised how many are making declarations about the Egyptian situation when the facts of it really are not understood or known, namely - are we sure these demonstrations were autonomous and not manufactured and what exactly did the protesters want other than the ouster of Mubarak? It's all very nice to talk about democracy and liberalization etc but were those things ever really on the table? And even if one wants to claim they were, do we have any clear idea what these people mean when they mouth the words democracy and liberalization? Hamas and Hezbollah were democratically elected - hell, so were Mubarak and that little prick in Iran for that matter.
In the end, if the status quo obtains in Egypt, the most interesting thing to come out of this [other than further evidence that Obama is in over his head] may be the now revealed truth regarding the destabilizing effects of social media on immature or repressed polities - and I don't mean in a good way. It's not like I wish these people ill, but the fact remains that it will probably only be through the cleansing effect of a great calamity that they manage to move forward and out from under the malaise of Islam - although that suggests I'm probably engaged in a delusion thinking that the putting off of this great upheaval will somehow soften the blow.
And let's not forget China, as regards the role of social media - those automatons of the Politburo can't be thrilled by what their seeing here - Twitter, Facebook etc are definitely making more difficult the math required to keep an autocracy viable - hell, they're screwing with the dynamics of mature democracies like ours - but then that's the value and benefit of democracy: constant change is not only tolerated and expected, it is in many ways often the desired for thing.
update: apparently violence has broken out between pro-Mubarak factions and those against - this confusing - I don't see how the pro faction could have been enabled without sanction from Mubarak - but how would violence serve his purposes? An escalation could only serve the radicals here - or possibly rogue officers looking for pretext to stage a coup - the nascent forces of putative liberalization could also benefit but they lack the organization required to pull it off - could the Muslim Brotherhood or the military be behind this? An odd - or mischievous - turn.
updated update: yes, should have seen this I guess, but appears military has ennabled pro-Mubarak faction in order to send message to ant-gov't forces that it's time to go home, the fun is over, we're now in control - violence allows the military to crack down now without looking intemperate - in short, this is playing out the way I [or rather the people I read] said it would - and of course the mainstream media seems to be completely missing the reality here - that being that the military is and probably always has controlled the agenda here, there are probably as many people in Egypt who support Mubarak as who oppose him [and certainly the elite classes want to keep what Mubarak represents around even if they don't want him around], that the motivation behind the uprising was never clear and ultimately has done nothing but serve the purposes of those who didn't want Mubarak's son succeeding him, that Mubarack understands Egypt a lot better than the western media does who saw only what they wanted to see - and if things continue to play out this way Obama will once again be revealed as a horrible president. Things could completely turn around in the next few days I suppose so shouldn't jump to conclusions - and we haven't yet seen a real effort from the MB to exploit things to their advantage - but then they probably realize that if Mubarak is going to stay only to be replaced a few months from now by some autocrat not much different then they have to be careful about exposing themselves - and one guesses that the anti-gov't protesters on the street who have now been photographed extensively by security forces are probably waking up to that reality too.
Again, I'm struck by how quick the Western media pretty much as a whole and certain supposed intellectuals, on the left and the right, how quick they were to run with this whole 'democratic revolution' nonsense - not pretending I had a complete understanding of the dynamics of this from the beginning, but I never bought the democracy line and from the start found myself leaning to the Israeli point of view, which right now is looking like the right one.
And let's not forget China, as regards the role of social media - those automatons of the Politburo can't be thrilled by what their seeing here - Twitter, Facebook etc are definitely making more difficult the math required to keep an autocracy viable - hell, they're screwing with the dynamics of mature democracies like ours - but then that's the value and benefit of democracy: constant change is not only tolerated and expected, it is in many ways often the desired for thing.
update: apparently violence has broken out between pro-Mubarak factions and those against - this confusing - I don't see how the pro faction could have been enabled without sanction from Mubarak - but how would violence serve his purposes? An escalation could only serve the radicals here - or possibly rogue officers looking for pretext to stage a coup - the nascent forces of putative liberalization could also benefit but they lack the organization required to pull it off - could the Muslim Brotherhood or the military be behind this? An odd - or mischievous - turn.
updated update: yes, should have seen this I guess, but appears military has ennabled pro-Mubarak faction in order to send message to ant-gov't forces that it's time to go home, the fun is over, we're now in control - violence allows the military to crack down now without looking intemperate - in short, this is playing out the way I [or rather the people I read] said it would - and of course the mainstream media seems to be completely missing the reality here - that being that the military is and probably always has controlled the agenda here, there are probably as many people in Egypt who support Mubarak as who oppose him [and certainly the elite classes want to keep what Mubarak represents around even if they don't want him around], that the motivation behind the uprising was never clear and ultimately has done nothing but serve the purposes of those who didn't want Mubarak's son succeeding him, that Mubarack understands Egypt a lot better than the western media does who saw only what they wanted to see - and if things continue to play out this way Obama will once again be revealed as a horrible president. Things could completely turn around in the next few days I suppose so shouldn't jump to conclusions - and we haven't yet seen a real effort from the MB to exploit things to their advantage - but then they probably realize that if Mubarak is going to stay only to be replaced a few months from now by some autocrat not much different then they have to be careful about exposing themselves - and one guesses that the anti-gov't protesters on the street who have now been photographed extensively by security forces are probably waking up to that reality too.
Again, I'm struck by how quick the Western media pretty much as a whole and certain supposed intellectuals, on the left and the right, how quick they were to run with this whole 'democratic revolution' nonsense - not pretending I had a complete understanding of the dynamics of this from the beginning, but I never bought the democracy line and from the start found myself leaning to the Israeli point of view, which right now is looking like the right one.
