So, Mubarak has stepped down and the military is in charge - this makes sense - why the delay from yesterday remains perplexing - possibly it was as speculated an attempt by whomever or whatever is pulling the strings now to separate those who can be trusted from those can't - this just one of many, many questions that will be answered over the coming weeks and months. Should be interesting, and an interesting exercise in explication - there have been two distinct and opposing observational camps here: the realists/sceptics, and the progressives/neocons/optimists - I obviously fall into the former category - one of us is going to be proven right - I guess I should hope it's them since if my camp is vindicated that means something bad is going to happen, probably something very bad. Many variables in play here: we don't know what was behind the seeming confusion of last night; we don't know if rifts have developed in the military, factions with differing points of view and objectives; we don't know how Mubarak loyalists are going to respond nor how all those who stand to lose from a possible dismantling of the status quo will react to changes in their erstwhile good fortune; we don't know what promises if any have been made to the Muslim Brotherhood, whether or not they have allies in the military, how duplicitous they'll be with real power now finally within sight nor how that power, should it come, will alter or energize their ideological underpinnings for better or, much more likely in my opinion, worse; we don't know how disparate protesters, temporarily united by the short term goal of getting rid of Mubarak, will behave towards each other when they start to realize they have different long term agendas; we don't know what potentially disruptive roles outside actors will have: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria are very much afraid of similar events roiling their domains and therefore they want to see specific things happen in Egypt - Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah want to expand their influence and power throughout the region and therefore they too would like to see certain things and scenarios play out in a post Mubarak Egypt - Israel is stuck in the middle of all this, vulnerable, hated pretty much by everyone and staring at many months of sleepless nights.
And just as a way of tossing extra spice into the soup, keep in mind that Mubarak is now a free agent with many powerful friends still in the region and many scores to settle with enemies - especially and most importantly a very big one now with Obama - he held onto power for as long as he possibly could which means he's a very proud man and that pride is now severely abused which means he is now a very bitter man - I'd rate the likelihood as high that he spends much of the next few months trying to make Obama's life miserable.
