Events in Egypt seem to have escalated dramatically over the last twenty-four hours - protests breaking out amongst disparate groups all over the country - strikes, civil disobediences of many kinds moving far beyond the youth centric uprising in Cairo - the military has released a statement saying they have 'stepped in' to insure the stability of the state and that the 'wishes of the people' will soon be answered - the Jerusalem Post says this indicates a coup is in progress - if so things could quickly start to spin out of control - when Mubarak is announced to have been relieved of duties, possibly as soon as today, there will be an initial, short lived phase of jubilation that may rapidly devolve into violence as different groups with vastly different agendas start to clash - at the very least, once the initial joy of victory subsides, the question of what next will weigh very heavily on events - people have wildly varying expectations here - the military has in many ways aided the protesters but in few ways actually supports their agenda - and this could be the moment the Muslim Brotherhood makes it's move, a demand for democracy possibly - but remember what Turkey's Erdogan had to say about democracy: it's like a street car - when you come to your stop you get off - in other words, democracy is but a means towards an alternate, even antithetical political reality that is your true goal, not a political end in itself.
My view of things is colored by my sharing the Israeli cynicism towards Arabs - Muslim governance in general - and democracy. Possibly that cynicism is misplaced and this could indeed be a watershed moment in Mideast politics - but I very much doubt it.
update: Very confusing - Mubarak has just come out and said he plans to stay on until September and the VP has told protesters they should go home - something doesn't make sense here - was there an attempted coup by junior officers and it failed? Or is this the hand the military has decided to play? Or was the reporting of what was happening erroneous? Expectations having been raised, I see no way protests simply stop without shots being fired - how does this possibly not get very ugly now? Although the chances of it not getting ugly regardless seemed slim to me. Is civil war a possibility as some are suggesting? I don't see that - there'd have too be an armed insurgency and there isn't one, unless the MB has a hidden cache somewhere courtesy of Hamas/Hezbollah. Again, some on both right an left in America want to blame Obama for not throwing full support behind democracy movement - I'm no fan of Obama's actions here, but I ask - what democracy movement are they talking about? In the unstable world of the Mideast America cannot be in the business of trying to encourage inchoate uprisings to mutate into inchoate mass movements of dubious nature and motive that could easily become radicalized or hijacked by radicals - that would be insane. I'm having trouble understanding why the military has not forced Mubarak's hand - violence is sure to erupt here - I'm guessing there must be factions forming within the ranks - Obama has no choice now but to do what he can to force Mubarak out - is it possible that's what the military is waiting for?
And let's not forget that Panetta at the CIA came out tonight and strongly suggested Mubarak would be gone by tomorrow - why would he do that if they weren't convinced it was true? Are they that incompetent or was this a setup? Has Mubarak played Obama like a fool? But if so, and the result is violence and chaos, why? Or was it the Egyptian military, or possibly even a rogue element in the military playing Obama for a fool? But again, why? Well, I see why a rogue element might do it - but other than that I don't see how creating a situation almost sure to result in violence would serve their purposes - in which case could just be more incompetence from Obama.
Just got an update from STRATFOR and they want to say that the military does not have as much control over Mubarak as I'm assuming - but I'm not sure I buy that - Mubarak has put them in a very tough position here where there are really only two possibilities: the military stands aside and lets the protesters storm the presidential palace - or they stage a coup - no one seems to think they would fire on the protesters [not sure I share their confidence there - that would all depend on how they see things unfolding should they not fire] - so Mubarak seems to be in a no win situation and his intransigence is putting military in very tough spot: how is it possible he can get away with this unless they're giving him the latitude to do it? They have all the power now - Mubarak none. Doesn't make sense to me.
The suggestion has been made that Mubarak indeed was screwing with people by letting it be known that he was about to step down - but doing so in order to flush out traitors - and maybe a little bit to make Obama look foolish - I'm not sure I buy that either, it's possible, but for a man with few options that's a pretty risky game to be playing - I'm still feeling there must be more to it than that. One thing is sure, Obama's horrible decision to almost capriciously it seemed abandon Mubarak and cheer on the the protesters has left Washington near powerless since no one with real access to power in Egypt trusts Obama anymore - pretty much the very dynamic the Israelis have been warning against since the beginning.
