But what about Ukraine? Perfect example of what strategic incompetence gets ya - Europe pushed east without ever it seems stopping to consider what they were gonna do if Russia pushed back - the epitome of strategic myopia revealed by fact that every Western leader was shocked when Putin went into Crimea, shocked when Putin then stoked upheaval in eastern Ukraine - that they we're shocked by these developments screams strategic incompetence [an idiot like me predicted both of those things] and now there are few good options if any. With the recent signing of the ceasefire looks like Putin gets what he wanted all along: Crimea, autonomy in eastern Ukraine that he can continue to exploit and a show of power that exposed how weak, feckless and irresolute Western leadership is at the moment.
Those arguing to arm Ukraine, that seems like a mistake to me - that would not undo the original mistakes, just compound them - Putin has too much to lose here, he'll call your bluff, and if you're not willing to acknowledge the consequences of that reality, you'll get beat. I don't think it was ever Putin's goal to actually invade Ukraine because the sanctions that would follow such a move would truly devastate Russia's economy - but it was his goal certainly to stoke upheaval and convince the West that they should indeed fear such a thing. He wins. All you can do now is accept that you fucked up, learn your lessons and compensate before Putin acts again. Will they? Not with Obama in the White House - and all the bad players out there know it, which is why the next two years could get pretty god damn messy.
Those arguing to arm Ukraine, that seems like a mistake to me - that would not undo the original mistakes, just compound them - Putin has too much to lose here, he'll call your bluff, and if you're not willing to acknowledge the consequences of that reality, you'll get beat. I don't think it was ever Putin's goal to actually invade Ukraine because the sanctions that would follow such a move would truly devastate Russia's economy - but it was his goal certainly to stoke upheaval and convince the West that they should indeed fear such a thing. He wins. All you can do now is accept that you fucked up, learn your lessons and compensate before Putin acts again. Will they? Not with Obama in the White House - and all the bad players out there know it, which is why the next two years could get pretty god damn messy.
