A word on latest crisis roiling the waters twixt Israel and the Obama administration - that word is predictable. Obama policy all along when it comes to Iran has been to dissemble while moving incrementally to the inevitability of 'containment' - all that talk about all options being on the table, i.e. the use of force, to stop Iran from going nuclear? A lie. All that talk about Rouhani being a moderate and a true partner for peace? Lies [remember Obama started talks with Iran and offered to cut sanctions before Rouhani was elected]. All that talk about the negotiations moving forward. albeit slowly, to something viable? Lies. The policy all along has been containment and everyone in Israel knows this, any unbiased observer has known this, the powers that be in Iran surely know this, Russia and China know this. Obama has had one goal here, to avoid at all costs the use of force, either by the US or Israel - and then eventually you get to a defacto policy of containment. Draw out the negotiations for as long as possible and that gets you two things: it keeps Israel stuck on the sidelines till it's too late to act; and then, regardless of whether a deal is signed or not, when Iran eventually breaks the 'trust' and moves on nukes anyways, Obama will be at or near the end of his term and can then 'argue' that he tried to fight the good fight but Iran cheated and with that simply pass the problem on to whoever takes over the White House. Obama has had one goal: avoid the use of force which necessarily means embracing containment. He may also have harboured an illusion about forging a detente with Iran and forming a new strategic relationship with them - that's possible - but that delusion would have been born out of the central theme: avoid the use of force.
And this is why Obama cannot abide any talk about the renewal of sanctions nor any gestures which undermine the appearance of negotiations being legitimate - it's too soon - Iran has all the leverage here because they see exactly what Obama's game is - they can walk away which will put Obama in a very bad spot with still two years left in his term - at which point he probably caves and signs any deal in a desperate attempt to keep the lie viable just long enough for him to leave. Sure, he can blame republicans if the talks fall apart, and he will - but in the end he's still the one who has to act and that's exactly what he's trying to avoid. And Iran knows it.
So you see, all predictable - you try and spin lies like this about something with such huge strategic implications and with this dissembling essentially undermine the security concerns of two key allies, Saudi Arabia and especially Israel, it's delusional to think the charade can be maintained - eventually responsible people are going to push back, they have no choice - Obama can throw his temper tantrums [releasing falsified Mossad briefings] and poison the water further - but the buck still stops on his desk and he'll be stuck with two options: cave on the deal, or get tough - fully expect it to be the former.
Of course there is one other way this goes - senate Democrats wimp out, bow to Obama's demands, making the sanctions bill no longer veto proof - and then we're back to the charade - but now with everyone's cards on the table and Obama's bluff having been exposed. At that point I think maybe Iran ignores Obama's veto and still threatens to walk out knowing that they really have the upper hand - Obama absolutely needs one of two things: a deal that 'looks' viable even though it isn't, or negotiations that drag on and on - and so Iran may use the threat of renewed sanctions to really turn the screws on Obama.
And this is why Obama cannot abide any talk about the renewal of sanctions nor any gestures which undermine the appearance of negotiations being legitimate - it's too soon - Iran has all the leverage here because they see exactly what Obama's game is - they can walk away which will put Obama in a very bad spot with still two years left in his term - at which point he probably caves and signs any deal in a desperate attempt to keep the lie viable just long enough for him to leave. Sure, he can blame republicans if the talks fall apart, and he will - but in the end he's still the one who has to act and that's exactly what he's trying to avoid. And Iran knows it.
So you see, all predictable - you try and spin lies like this about something with such huge strategic implications and with this dissembling essentially undermine the security concerns of two key allies, Saudi Arabia and especially Israel, it's delusional to think the charade can be maintained - eventually responsible people are going to push back, they have no choice - Obama can throw his temper tantrums [releasing falsified Mossad briefings] and poison the water further - but the buck still stops on his desk and he'll be stuck with two options: cave on the deal, or get tough - fully expect it to be the former.
Of course there is one other way this goes - senate Democrats wimp out, bow to Obama's demands, making the sanctions bill no longer veto proof - and then we're back to the charade - but now with everyone's cards on the table and Obama's bluff having been exposed. At that point I think maybe Iran ignores Obama's veto and still threatens to walk out knowing that they really have the upper hand - Obama absolutely needs one of two things: a deal that 'looks' viable even though it isn't, or negotiations that drag on and on - and so Iran may use the threat of renewed sanctions to really turn the screws on Obama.
