About that downed Malaysian jet - a couple of points. That Russia would enable increased firepower for the rebels if Kiev refused to compromise and instead took the fight to Putin's operatives was entirely predictable from the beginning of this adventure, and yet people have acted as if that wasn't the case - as I said even before he went into Crimea [something that Obama et al also failed to see coming] Putin would not have made these moves without factoring in and accepting the possibility of things getting messy - and yet the EU, Obama etc etc have all acted as if the way this has played out is 'surprising' - commercial jets continuing to fly over a war zone where the use of sophisticated anti-air weapons had already been demonstrated is clear evidence of the sense of unreality clouding peoples perceptions viz Ukraine - thinking that Putin was just going to back away from what he'd started, a perception that the EU and Obama have fostered through their words and actions, was flat out foolish.
Which is not to absolve Russia of sin here - but Ukraine for all intents and purposes has been a war zone since Putin made it clear losing it was not something he could tolerate and yet the EU and Obama have done their best to act as if that wasn't the case - and the sad fact is, in a war zone mistakes get made and innocent people die - expressing moral outrage over it is understandable but ultimately beside the point, especially when the US in 1988 made the same unfortunate mistake with less excuse since the operators who brought down the Iranian jet then were no doubt better trained and equipped than whoever it was that mistakenly targeted the Malaysian jet.
The question now is, what next? I reiterate, imagining that Putin is now going to back away is as far as I'm concerned wishful thinking and therefore if the EU and Obama are going to ramp up the rhetoric and belligerence based on notions that Putin has no choice now but to retreat they better have a plan for what they're going to do if he doesn’t ‘cause I don't think he will - he might, but if you're just going to assume it and act accordingly don't be crying foul when Putin backs you once again into a very uncomfortable corner. His whole purpose here has been to force a political compromise on Kiev that he can exploit over time to his advantage and I just don't see that changing. Sure, the EU was clearly not thrilled about imposing tough sanctions on Russia and now may be forced to and that could hurt - but Putin still has strong cards to play: an unspoken alliance with China; the ability to really throw a monkey wrench into whatever the hell Obama thinks he’s negotiating with Iran viz its nukes; and most important of all, a virtual stranglehold on Europe’s energy needs - with remarkable short sightedness the EU has left itself utterly dependent on the 'good intentions' of Putin to keep their economies going - in strategic terms that gets you a what they fuck were you thinking?
Which is not to absolve Russia of sin here - but Ukraine for all intents and purposes has been a war zone since Putin made it clear losing it was not something he could tolerate and yet the EU and Obama have done their best to act as if that wasn't the case - and the sad fact is, in a war zone mistakes get made and innocent people die - expressing moral outrage over it is understandable but ultimately beside the point, especially when the US in 1988 made the same unfortunate mistake with less excuse since the operators who brought down the Iranian jet then were no doubt better trained and equipped than whoever it was that mistakenly targeted the Malaysian jet.
The question now is, what next? I reiterate, imagining that Putin is now going to back away is as far as I'm concerned wishful thinking and therefore if the EU and Obama are going to ramp up the rhetoric and belligerence based on notions that Putin has no choice now but to retreat they better have a plan for what they're going to do if he doesn’t ‘cause I don't think he will - he might, but if you're just going to assume it and act accordingly don't be crying foul when Putin backs you once again into a very uncomfortable corner. His whole purpose here has been to force a political compromise on Kiev that he can exploit over time to his advantage and I just don't see that changing. Sure, the EU was clearly not thrilled about imposing tough sanctions on Russia and now may be forced to and that could hurt - but Putin still has strong cards to play: an unspoken alliance with China; the ability to really throw a monkey wrench into whatever the hell Obama thinks he’s negotiating with Iran viz its nukes; and most important of all, a virtual stranglehold on Europe’s energy needs - with remarkable short sightedness the EU has left itself utterly dependent on the 'good intentions' of Putin to keep their economies going - in strategic terms that gets you a what they fuck were you thinking?