I laugh with great sadness at those suggesting Putin is retreating on Ukraine because he seems to be winding down a wider military threat - with sadness because of the strategic ineptitude now regularly evinced by the besotted leaders of The West. As far as I can tell, Putin has what he wanted or was angling for from the start: Crimea and the beginnings of a political compromise that he can exploit over the coming months and years to his advantage [not to mention a new strategic alliance with China that can be used to isolate the US] - an actual invasion of Ukraine was never in the cards except as an absolute last resort and then possibly not even then - it was always about bringing pressure to bear through growing upheaval and the threat that this unrest could bring about an actual invasion until intimations of a political compromise emerged - Putin has acted all along as if he was in the driver's seat, as if he had the only real leverage and nothing has happened to suggest that wasn't true - Putin had expertly cultivated the idea that he indeed was willing to invade if it came to that and Obama and the EU wanted absolutely no part of a military confrontation, especially if the prize was gonna be a dysfunctional and heavily indebted Ukraine - EU dependence on Russian gas and all the Russian money flowing through the EU banking system meant that the EU could petulantly stamp its feet but do little else - and because, as said, Ukraine was hardly a prize worth the effort he could read the US and the EU as by and large bluffing - if you don't care about super power prestige or the strategic uses of America being perceived as something to be feared and respected, which clearly Obama doesn't given the in retreat mess that is his foreign policy, then Ukraine was always going to be worth more to Russia than to the feckless, desultory, addled West.
The truly disturbing thing about all this is that even before Putin had entered Crimea it was clear that one of the ways this could all play out is the way it played out and yet Obama and the EU leadership seemed to have not the slightest clue of it - I fully expected Putin to enter Crimea, made complete sense to me - Obama, Kerry and the sad rest were apparently shocked by it - that's disturbing.
[I do agree that probably Putin has come up short of what he hoped to get when all this started - but I do think he's attained the minimum of what was required and that's enough since it's my opinion he has a much better grasp than Obama et al of where the real leverage lies here and what this all will look like a year down the road]
[although maybe I've got this entirely wrong since the EU has just signed a 'partnership' agreement with Ukraine and Putin is apparently all pissed off about it - not sure of the details - that says to me the EU thinks Putin is in retreat and they're calling the bluff - but I've said all along that Putin cannot be bluffing because he cannot afford the political fallout of a bluff being called - he had to be all in for the win - so, I dunno - the EU has acted all along like they can push east and there'll be no repercussions - I still think that a serious misreading of the situation - I just do not believe that Putin started down this path without understanding that it was a very high stakes game and to win he'd have to willing to ride it to the very brink - clearly Obama and the EU leadership never saw it in those terms and have acted throughout as if it was all perfectly manageable because Putin was 'in the wrong' and he'd eventually have to come to terms with that and back down - that's naive - to me Putin has always been committed to the long game]
The truly disturbing thing about all this is that even before Putin had entered Crimea it was clear that one of the ways this could all play out is the way it played out and yet Obama and the EU leadership seemed to have not the slightest clue of it - I fully expected Putin to enter Crimea, made complete sense to me - Obama, Kerry and the sad rest were apparently shocked by it - that's disturbing.
[I do agree that probably Putin has come up short of what he hoped to get when all this started - but I do think he's attained the minimum of what was required and that's enough since it's my opinion he has a much better grasp than Obama et al of where the real leverage lies here and what this all will look like a year down the road]
[although maybe I've got this entirely wrong since the EU has just signed a 'partnership' agreement with Ukraine and Putin is apparently all pissed off about it - not sure of the details - that says to me the EU thinks Putin is in retreat and they're calling the bluff - but I've said all along that Putin cannot be bluffing because he cannot afford the political fallout of a bluff being called - he had to be all in for the win - so, I dunno - the EU has acted all along like they can push east and there'll be no repercussions - I still think that a serious misreading of the situation - I just do not believe that Putin started down this path without understanding that it was a very high stakes game and to win he'd have to willing to ride it to the very brink - clearly Obama and the EU leadership never saw it in those terms and have acted throughout as if it was all perfectly manageable because Putin was 'in the wrong' and he'd eventually have to come to terms with that and back down - that's naive - to me Putin has always been committed to the long game]
