So, with regards to China espionage charges, Great Dragon responds with a little fire, proclaiming loudly their absolute innocence and demanding that the charges immediately be rescinded [that 'immediate' demand amounts to a red line, yes, an ultimatum?] - Obama of course now cannot comply with this request without rendering his presidency null and void [or at least obviously so for those many still nurturing the delusion that everything's just going along swimingly].
So what now? Seems to me Obama has three choices [aside from actually backing down]: make a big enough concession in some other policy area that appeases China; just stop talking about the charges and hope that China let's it slide [sort of a backdoor appeasement]; or get serious and offer up proof since China is so vehemently claiming its innocence. In my mind it has to be the latter since now that you've made this move anything else will amount to capitulation - no doubt that is why China is so vehemently proclaiming its innocence [which is absurd and everyone knows it]: they're daring Obama to come out and publicly call them liars, no doubt betting that he won't do that - which, as I said, will amount to a win for them and yet another huge blow to US credibility as a superpower thanks to the worst president ever. This should be interesting.
[the unnoted thing to note here is that if Obama moved forward with these charges without considering these various permutations of how it might play out - well, that would be inexcusable - so, since these are not stupid people, if their response to Big Dragon's anger looks confused or indeed like capitulation, how would we explain that? It's not impossible for such smart people to also be utterly incompetent, but it certainly does challenge credibility - I'd have to believe it was something other than incompetence - ideological delusion? a complete lack of interest in the intelligent practice of superpower foreign policy? a deliberate attempt to undermine US authority? I dunno]
[and of course the other problem implied here is: why take this action now? Everyone spies on everyone else - but the big problem is Chinese corporate spying, which other countries also do, sure, but not anywhere near the level that China does it nor with the deep tangle of government companies that happily ignore international rules of business and the rights of intellectual property - it's that incentuous relationship between government and business in China and the mere size of it that makes it such a dire threat - but again, why raise the issue now? Has there been some really significant security breach we don't know about? Do they actually think China will respond positively to being called out and curb their misdeeds? Or did they just not think it through?
The other interesting consideration that I've wondered about before is: when would a cyber theft of intellectual property by a government sponsored business be so egregious and pose such a severe economic threat that it amounts to a just cause for war? I mean, if a Chinese gov't sponsored business with the help of the PLA's hackers stole the next big thing from Apple, what exactly would the appropriate response be? If it's a private company ripping you off you have options - but a Chinese SOC using state intelligence services to steal intellectual property from a private American company that amounts to billions upon billions of lost revenues and possibly even the ruin of that company - I mean, what's the proper response to something like that? Is it really so crazy to think of such a theft amounting to a just cause for war?
Put it in real world terms to understand how significant a problem this could be: five years ago Blackberry was by far the big player in mobile - and then the iPhone came along and crushed them - what if Blackberry had been a Chinese SOC using PLA hackers to uncover the secret of the iPhone thus allowing them to beat Apple to the punch and completely rewriting the fortunes of those two companies and all the wealth - and jobs - that came and went with them? That's a big frickin' problem, yes? If it's just Blackberry the private Canadian company engaged in these illegal activities Apple has options to redress the wrongs and get their money back - and a weak country like Canada would never think of risking the anger and retribution from the US by running to Blackberry's defense even if they wanted to ignore the theft committed - but that's not the case with China - they are powerful, they don't care about transparency and fair practice and they could care less about honoring rights governing intellectual property - so, again, what's the proper response to state sponsored corporate espionage that threatens American businesses in a very significant way? A blockade that brings financial hardship can be considered casus belli - why not this? You start to realise that at some point America is probably going to have to spell out just how far too far is when it comes to this kind of theft by China - in other words I think, establish casus belli]
So what now? Seems to me Obama has three choices [aside from actually backing down]: make a big enough concession in some other policy area that appeases China; just stop talking about the charges and hope that China let's it slide [sort of a backdoor appeasement]; or get serious and offer up proof since China is so vehemently claiming its innocence. In my mind it has to be the latter since now that you've made this move anything else will amount to capitulation - no doubt that is why China is so vehemently proclaiming its innocence [which is absurd and everyone knows it]: they're daring Obama to come out and publicly call them liars, no doubt betting that he won't do that - which, as I said, will amount to a win for them and yet another huge blow to US credibility as a superpower thanks to the worst president ever. This should be interesting.
[the unnoted thing to note here is that if Obama moved forward with these charges without considering these various permutations of how it might play out - well, that would be inexcusable - so, since these are not stupid people, if their response to Big Dragon's anger looks confused or indeed like capitulation, how would we explain that? It's not impossible for such smart people to also be utterly incompetent, but it certainly does challenge credibility - I'd have to believe it was something other than incompetence - ideological delusion? a complete lack of interest in the intelligent practice of superpower foreign policy? a deliberate attempt to undermine US authority? I dunno]
[and of course the other problem implied here is: why take this action now? Everyone spies on everyone else - but the big problem is Chinese corporate spying, which other countries also do, sure, but not anywhere near the level that China does it nor with the deep tangle of government companies that happily ignore international rules of business and the rights of intellectual property - it's that incentuous relationship between government and business in China and the mere size of it that makes it such a dire threat - but again, why raise the issue now? Has there been some really significant security breach we don't know about? Do they actually think China will respond positively to being called out and curb their misdeeds? Or did they just not think it through?
The other interesting consideration that I've wondered about before is: when would a cyber theft of intellectual property by a government sponsored business be so egregious and pose such a severe economic threat that it amounts to a just cause for war? I mean, if a Chinese gov't sponsored business with the help of the PLA's hackers stole the next big thing from Apple, what exactly would the appropriate response be? If it's a private company ripping you off you have options - but a Chinese SOC using state intelligence services to steal intellectual property from a private American company that amounts to billions upon billions of lost revenues and possibly even the ruin of that company - I mean, what's the proper response to something like that? Is it really so crazy to think of such a theft amounting to a just cause for war?
Put it in real world terms to understand how significant a problem this could be: five years ago Blackberry was by far the big player in mobile - and then the iPhone came along and crushed them - what if Blackberry had been a Chinese SOC using PLA hackers to uncover the secret of the iPhone thus allowing them to beat Apple to the punch and completely rewriting the fortunes of those two companies and all the wealth - and jobs - that came and went with them? That's a big frickin' problem, yes? If it's just Blackberry the private Canadian company engaged in these illegal activities Apple has options to redress the wrongs and get their money back - and a weak country like Canada would never think of risking the anger and retribution from the US by running to Blackberry's defense even if they wanted to ignore the theft committed - but that's not the case with China - they are powerful, they don't care about transparency and fair practice and they could care less about honoring rights governing intellectual property - so, again, what's the proper response to state sponsored corporate espionage that threatens American businesses in a very significant way? A blockade that brings financial hardship can be considered casus belli - why not this? You start to realise that at some point America is probably going to have to spell out just how far too far is when it comes to this kind of theft by China - in other words I think, establish casus belli]