Kissinger suggests Putin's actions something of a desperate ad lib - that he would never have spent all that money to buy positive PR with Olympics only to get caught in this negative PR Ukraine mess. I guess in a sense that's true - although events so far have definitely been good PR for Putin within Russia - and Olympics plans were laid years ago when thoughts on Ukraine were no doubt more optimistic - if given a choice between good Olympics PR and losing Ukraine, that really ain't a choice at all from Putin's point of view - and let's also remember that that gobs of money spent on the silly Olympics went to make Putin's buddies rich, that buys loyalty and so still money well spent regardless of PR from his point of view.
I think people are looking at the growing 'mess' in Ukraine and concluding that Putin miscalculated and acted rashly and now it's starting to unravel on him - I don't see it that way. To me they must have long had plans of how to deal with a Ukraine problem and I think the smoothness of the Crimea operation is proof of that - and in order to avoid actual invasion the growing 'mess' is necessary so as to force the US/EU into giving Kiev an ultimatum viz political compromise - Putin knows that there's no way the EU wants or can deal with a shooting war in Ukraine that leads to all that Russian money draining from the EU economy and banking system, never mind threat of the gas being turned off - so the mess is deliberate and actual invasion always only a last resort - way I see it anyway.
People suggesting that the referendum going ahead against Putin's wishes is proof of him losing control are assuming that it wasn't Putin's goal here to look reasonable, like the 'good guy' seeking conciliation, and that the referendum going ahead against his wishes was always the intention - that's the way I see it because, one, the objective here is a political compromise that favors Putin's ambitions so he has to look amenable to some degree, and two, I don't believe for a second that if Putin didn't actually want that referendum to go ahead that he couldn't have stopped it - I just don't see that as credible.
The wild card in all this are the Ukrainian ultra nationalists - it certainly is possible that they're becoming more of a complication than Putin planned for and if so things could definitely start to get ugly - proof of that being true would be if he starts supplying the Russian loyalists with more substantial weaponry.
