As things get messy in Ukraine, some are wondering if Putin's bluff has been called, if Ukrainian nationalist forces have outfoxed him - ahhh... not the way I see it - to agree with that you'd have to believe that Putin's real goal here wasn't always political upheaval with the threat of invasion hanging over it and then using the leverage of that threat to force the US and EU into applying pressure on Ukraine to accept a political compromise - because if that was the goal [which I think it was] then for the moment things seem to be heading in that direction - you'd also have to believe that should this stratagem fail Putin never intended to invade Ukraine as a last resort - but of course he must have accepted the reality of an invasion should it come to that because there is no political future for him if he's seen letting people he's characterized as 'anti-Russian fascists' chase him away.
So I still see this as things playing out the way Putin intended - increasing upheaval, increasing threat of wider escalation until Putin gets the political capitulation he's looking for and would prefer over an actual 'invasion' - but just because an actual invasion as far as I'm concerned would not be the preferred outcome, logic dictates it must still be a final recourse that is very real because I just don't see Putin playing this gambit without acknowledging that final reality.
So I still see this as things playing out the way Putin intended - increasing upheaval, increasing threat of wider escalation until Putin gets the political capitulation he's looking for and would prefer over an actual 'invasion' - but just because an actual invasion as far as I'm concerned would not be the preferred outcome, logic dictates it must still be a final recourse that is very real because I just don't see Putin playing this gambit without acknowledging that final reality.