The problem with the coming sanctions on Russia is that people talk as if this outcome was never considered and accounted for by Putin - they talk as if somehow this action will come as a surprise to Putin and therefore I'm guessing they no doubt overestimate the effect. Now, I'm not saying it's impossible Putin underestimated the economic consequences of his actions and therefore can indeed possibly be effectively pressured by such, I'm just saying far as I'm concerned it seems unlikely Putin hasn't been expecting this and accordingly has a response planned. People thought sanctions would force Iran away from the bomb but that didn't happen, regardless how Obama/Kerry might try to convince us otherwise - people thought capitalism and integration into global markets would force China into becoming a democracy but again that didn't happen, not even close. Certain types in the West make this miscalculation all the time and for an obvious reason: the alternative is a belief in the efficacy of military force - but just because liberals would very much like to believe that such refined and enlightened advocacy can bring order to the restive world in lieu of the massing of armies doesn't mean that the world will acquiesce and behave in accordance with those lofty wishes - in fact, I'd much expect to see the opposite.
Other mistake people are making here seems to me is assuming that even if you manage to get to Putin through sanctions he then simply capitulates. That's wishful thinking - why can't it be that he escalates or looks for some other means to get what he wants? Again, Iran wasn't dissuaded by sanctions, they just modified the means by which they sought their goals - very likely Putin will do the same since if he backs down it's over for him in Russia - and I repeat, I'd be very surprised if these complications had not been thoroughly considered ahead of time and various options for response considered. I may be giving Putin way too much credit, but tend not to think so - till I see evidence to the contrary, far as I'm concerned Putin still sees himself as having Obama's number - as does Iran, as does China - for that matter as do the Palestinians viz the 'peace process' - Obama may be good at manipulating the advantage of a biased media and press in order to leverage the dubious celebrity of being the first 'black' president towards the winning of elections - that he has a knack for - but when it comes to stuff like this, there's nothing he's done as president or before for that matter that suggests he can or even simply cares to play this game - it's not impossible that he sees such coarse things as being beneath his enlightened view of things - regardless, his adventures in foreign policy to date have been uniformly awful and wholly misguided and I'm really not expecting a miraculous change to that record to announce itself here.
[okay, it's charged, you're free with your criticism of Obama - what would you do? Well, as said before, the idiocy of the reset and the tempting of Ukraine to the west without it seems heeding or planning for the likely dire consequences of that are big mistakes that cannot be taken back - so your hands are tied to a degree. Key is figuring out what Putin wants - just the Crimea or more? If it's more, you have to send a strong message and there has to be a military component to the message - can't just be sanctions. But if all he wants is the Crimea, well then, that's an unfortunate thing that the EU and America are partially responsible for bringing about and you just have to accept it - to me it'd be idiotic to escalate this business over keeping the Crimea as part of an overall dysfunctional Ukraine. Now, sure, you do in response have to put up deterrents that limit the damage at the Crimea - but sanctions are not that - military and diplomatic gestures with other eastern European states and possibly Ukraine would be more useful - think long term because Putin wants you thinking short term, he wants you to react in a way that he can exploit for show more than substance so don't give him that opportunity - Russia has no long term future so long as you don't hand Putin the victories he needs, like with Syria, like with sowing doubt about your commitments in the minds of your Mideast allies, and like with reaching out to a completely unnecessary Ukraine without it seems ever considering the consequences of that - but to me sanctions probably don't achieve what you're hoping they'll achieve and run the risk of escalating things for no good reason - as we've seen with Iran, sanctions can become a trap that if expertly manipulated either forces escalation or capitulation on the sanctioning parties. As I've said before, I believe that the way Iran has behaved, China in the China Sea, and Putin in Syria and now Ukraine are all based on perception that Obama is weak and doesn't believe in the indispensable value of American power and therefore can be manipulated, played - and as long as Obama is in the White House that dynamic isn't going to change and therefore your options are perforce limited.
My guess is Putin just wants the Crimea and is willing to then sit back and let the roiling political situation in Ukraine - subversively tweaked by him of course - play out, possibly eventually to his advantage - but that's a guess - I know he's moving a lot of troops around on the border but I still think that's more about applying pressure viz capitulation on Crimea rather than an invasion - I'd sure hope the Pentagon and the CIA have a clearer view of things, but who knows - but regardless, you're still stuck with Obama, that's the weak link - which means options are limited on our side while incentives are sweetened on theirs - and that's a bad combination]
[I should refine this: not necessarily against sanctions or other economic penalties that are punitive simply to be punitive - against sanctions that have a specific goal, as in getting Putin to leave Crimea - very skeptical of efficacy of those - but have no problem kicking Russia out of WTO taking other measure simply to say to Putin "we can't do much about Crimea, but take it further than that and were start doing stuff that is really gonna piss some of your oligarchs off" - I am against all sanctions that are seen as a replacement to military power and smart, keanly strategic diplomacy - that's fantasy way I see it - and I think embracing sanctions with specific goal of getting Putin out of the Crimea is doomed to failure and simply plays into his hands]
Other mistake people are making here seems to me is assuming that even if you manage to get to Putin through sanctions he then simply capitulates. That's wishful thinking - why can't it be that he escalates or looks for some other means to get what he wants? Again, Iran wasn't dissuaded by sanctions, they just modified the means by which they sought their goals - very likely Putin will do the same since if he backs down it's over for him in Russia - and I repeat, I'd be very surprised if these complications had not been thoroughly considered ahead of time and various options for response considered. I may be giving Putin way too much credit, but tend not to think so - till I see evidence to the contrary, far as I'm concerned Putin still sees himself as having Obama's number - as does Iran, as does China - for that matter as do the Palestinians viz the 'peace process' - Obama may be good at manipulating the advantage of a biased media and press in order to leverage the dubious celebrity of being the first 'black' president towards the winning of elections - that he has a knack for - but when it comes to stuff like this, there's nothing he's done as president or before for that matter that suggests he can or even simply cares to play this game - it's not impossible that he sees such coarse things as being beneath his enlightened view of things - regardless, his adventures in foreign policy to date have been uniformly awful and wholly misguided and I'm really not expecting a miraculous change to that record to announce itself here.
[okay, it's charged, you're free with your criticism of Obama - what would you do? Well, as said before, the idiocy of the reset and the tempting of Ukraine to the west without it seems heeding or planning for the likely dire consequences of that are big mistakes that cannot be taken back - so your hands are tied to a degree. Key is figuring out what Putin wants - just the Crimea or more? If it's more, you have to send a strong message and there has to be a military component to the message - can't just be sanctions. But if all he wants is the Crimea, well then, that's an unfortunate thing that the EU and America are partially responsible for bringing about and you just have to accept it - to me it'd be idiotic to escalate this business over keeping the Crimea as part of an overall dysfunctional Ukraine. Now, sure, you do in response have to put up deterrents that limit the damage at the Crimea - but sanctions are not that - military and diplomatic gestures with other eastern European states and possibly Ukraine would be more useful - think long term because Putin wants you thinking short term, he wants you to react in a way that he can exploit for show more than substance so don't give him that opportunity - Russia has no long term future so long as you don't hand Putin the victories he needs, like with Syria, like with sowing doubt about your commitments in the minds of your Mideast allies, and like with reaching out to a completely unnecessary Ukraine without it seems ever considering the consequences of that - but to me sanctions probably don't achieve what you're hoping they'll achieve and run the risk of escalating things for no good reason - as we've seen with Iran, sanctions can become a trap that if expertly manipulated either forces escalation or capitulation on the sanctioning parties. As I've said before, I believe that the way Iran has behaved, China in the China Sea, and Putin in Syria and now Ukraine are all based on perception that Obama is weak and doesn't believe in the indispensable value of American power and therefore can be manipulated, played - and as long as Obama is in the White House that dynamic isn't going to change and therefore your options are perforce limited.
My guess is Putin just wants the Crimea and is willing to then sit back and let the roiling political situation in Ukraine - subversively tweaked by him of course - play out, possibly eventually to his advantage - but that's a guess - I know he's moving a lot of troops around on the border but I still think that's more about applying pressure viz capitulation on Crimea rather than an invasion - I'd sure hope the Pentagon and the CIA have a clearer view of things, but who knows - but regardless, you're still stuck with Obama, that's the weak link - which means options are limited on our side while incentives are sweetened on theirs - and that's a bad combination]
[I should refine this: not necessarily against sanctions or other economic penalties that are punitive simply to be punitive - against sanctions that have a specific goal, as in getting Putin to leave Crimea - very skeptical of efficacy of those - but have no problem kicking Russia out of WTO taking other measure simply to say to Putin "we can't do much about Crimea, but take it further than that and were start doing stuff that is really gonna piss some of your oligarchs off" - I am against all sanctions that are seen as a replacement to military power and smart, keanly strategic diplomacy - that's fantasy way I see it - and I think embracing sanctions with specific goal of getting Putin out of the Crimea is doomed to failure and simply plays into his hands]
