Of course the only shocking thing about Russia moving into the Crimea is how shocked by it so many supposedly smart people in the West are - this was all predictable if one had a clear sense of what Putin is, how he sees his strategic interests playing out and how in general those who, like Putin, see themselves as being defined by their opposition or resistance to or hatred and resentment of all things American spend much time thinking about how to manipulate things so as to satisfy that enmity - in short, failure to see what was coming viz Ukraine once the EU and America started trying to pry it away from Russia is a manifestation of a naive and narrow detached from cold reality liberal world view that imagines itself as being of course right and everyone who might disagree with it as of course being wrong. Shorter still: the West is governed by idiots intent it seems on guarding the sanctity of their airy ideals by denying at all costs the notion that those ideals are held and generated by people who don't have a clue what the hell they're talking about. [to be fair, it's not just liberals - neocons and a great many libertarians as well display this penchant for faulty analysis]
The question now is what to do about the consequences of this idiocy - and how badly will Obama fuck it up. There are not a lot of options because all the good options would have involved never in the first place trusting Russia under Putin as a provisional friend whose good intentions could be counted on - so what you do now I'm not sure. Military threats are useless because absolutely no one believes Obama would actually go there - regardless, this problem at the moment does not seem to warrant the high risk of a military response, even if it's just moving a carrier group closer to the Black Sea - that sounds premature and again since no one believes Obama would ever seriously lean towards a show of force you're just setting yourself up to look foolish [although it's representative of how little thought had been given to this inevitability that Obama and Kerry both spoke at first as if 'all' options were on the table thus playing into Putin's desire to make the West look weak]. Kick Russia out of the G8 seems obvious and should have happened day one - but didn't, yet another indication of just how little thought western leaders had given to this inevitability. Sanctions etc? America has very little trade with Russia - the EU does but is no doubt not gonna be too thrilled about the economic fallout of sanctions, not to mention the stranglehold Russia has over Europe's energy needs - so sanctions seem of minor use. Isolating Putin viz world opinion? Again, if dissing Putin means supporting America, much of the world will not be interested in that, including most importantly of all China.
Actually, other than kicking Russia out of the G8 consideration of a response should be based on first coming to an understanding of what Putin's endgame is here - although, given what we've seen from Obama et al to date, even that simple strategically nuanced task might be beyond their capabilities. First and foremost, sure Putin feels he must retain some kind of control over at least Crimea and possibly as well some of the eastern provinces and I see no way he can now give up that very least of things - he may also have his sights set on Odessa - but most important to understand is that aside from whatever practical benefit a Ukraine in part or whole under Russian control brings Putin he absolutely needs to be seen as succeeding viz these goals at the EU's and Obama's expense - in other words, he's strong, they're feckless givers of pretty speeches - his 'win' must be seen as a loss for them. Given that, I see two scenarios: he holds onto the Crimea and uses the vague threat of further action as a bargaining chip to keep Crimea and possibly some other more minor concessions just so long as it looks like the West caved to his demands; or he uses the Crimea as a foothold to spread unrest in the eastern provinces as prelude to a something else. I don't think there's any intention of wider military incursions at the moment, or at least if they come I'd call that reckless on his part - to me there'd have to be precursors before such a thing - I actually think Putin would gladly at this point surrender western Ukraine to the EU because it's too much trouble to hold it with all it's problems and divisions and he'd see letting go of it as amounting to more of a headache than anything else for the EU and American democracy pedlars - indeed Putin may see all of Ukraine outside of the Crimea as ultimately ungovernable without Russian influence and involvement - that may be what he's counting on here long term.
Odds that Putin has bitten off more than he can chew? Not good at moment I'd say - but again depends on what his plans are. If he just means to hold the Crimea while negotiating a settlement, and then to just sit back and wait while the political situation in Ukraine starts to implode for various reasons - well, he's got much of that already. If his plans are a wider incursion or the active stoking of upheaval through various subversive complications, then that could get a bit tricky. Basically, Putin wins if he looks strong and the West looks weak and he keeps control of the Crimea - he wins big time if Ukraine starts to unwind politically and he can peel off in addition a few eastern provinces, possibly even Odessa, while leaving the burden of a dysfunctional and economically vulnerable west for the EU and Obama to deal with. Real wildcard here is if there's an exchange of fire between Russian and Ukrainian troops resulting in significant loss of life - that could send things spiralling in very bad ways that could easily outpace Putin's ability to contain the damage.
[does Obama purportedly telling Putin that he's on the wrong side of history pretty much sum up why Dear Leader is just such a disaster foreign policy wise? Saying something like that tells me that Obama has zero objective insight into what history has to teach and is therefore trapped by the arrogant myopia of a liberal ideologue's narrow and self serving view of history and its meaning, as if he's saying to Putin: my ascension and the full flowering of progressive enlightenment it represents are the true culmination of the western tradition and that you act in ways that do not comport with or openly defy that truth and the dictates thereof is a sure sign you're wrong and you should just admit to it and beg for our forgiveness. In other words, how dare you act in a way that casts doubt on the perfection of my vision. Do these people really not get that for China, Putin, most Muslim polities etc etc America and all it represents are increasingly the things on the wrong side of history and they intend to do all they can to make that belief a reality? And truth be told, that the greatest country on earth could elect to its highest office twice a man so utterly ill equipped to maintain and serve that greatness is a pretty telling sign that maybe Putin et al are right to think future history now belongs to them]
The question now is what to do about the consequences of this idiocy - and how badly will Obama fuck it up. There are not a lot of options because all the good options would have involved never in the first place trusting Russia under Putin as a provisional friend whose good intentions could be counted on - so what you do now I'm not sure. Military threats are useless because absolutely no one believes Obama would actually go there - regardless, this problem at the moment does not seem to warrant the high risk of a military response, even if it's just moving a carrier group closer to the Black Sea - that sounds premature and again since no one believes Obama would ever seriously lean towards a show of force you're just setting yourself up to look foolish [although it's representative of how little thought had been given to this inevitability that Obama and Kerry both spoke at first as if 'all' options were on the table thus playing into Putin's desire to make the West look weak]. Kick Russia out of the G8 seems obvious and should have happened day one - but didn't, yet another indication of just how little thought western leaders had given to this inevitability. Sanctions etc? America has very little trade with Russia - the EU does but is no doubt not gonna be too thrilled about the economic fallout of sanctions, not to mention the stranglehold Russia has over Europe's energy needs - so sanctions seem of minor use. Isolating Putin viz world opinion? Again, if dissing Putin means supporting America, much of the world will not be interested in that, including most importantly of all China.
Actually, other than kicking Russia out of the G8 consideration of a response should be based on first coming to an understanding of what Putin's endgame is here - although, given what we've seen from Obama et al to date, even that simple strategically nuanced task might be beyond their capabilities. First and foremost, sure Putin feels he must retain some kind of control over at least Crimea and possibly as well some of the eastern provinces and I see no way he can now give up that very least of things - he may also have his sights set on Odessa - but most important to understand is that aside from whatever practical benefit a Ukraine in part or whole under Russian control brings Putin he absolutely needs to be seen as succeeding viz these goals at the EU's and Obama's expense - in other words, he's strong, they're feckless givers of pretty speeches - his 'win' must be seen as a loss for them. Given that, I see two scenarios: he holds onto the Crimea and uses the vague threat of further action as a bargaining chip to keep Crimea and possibly some other more minor concessions just so long as it looks like the West caved to his demands; or he uses the Crimea as a foothold to spread unrest in the eastern provinces as prelude to a something else. I don't think there's any intention of wider military incursions at the moment, or at least if they come I'd call that reckless on his part - to me there'd have to be precursors before such a thing - I actually think Putin would gladly at this point surrender western Ukraine to the EU because it's too much trouble to hold it with all it's problems and divisions and he'd see letting go of it as amounting to more of a headache than anything else for the EU and American democracy pedlars - indeed Putin may see all of Ukraine outside of the Crimea as ultimately ungovernable without Russian influence and involvement - that may be what he's counting on here long term.
Odds that Putin has bitten off more than he can chew? Not good at moment I'd say - but again depends on what his plans are. If he just means to hold the Crimea while negotiating a settlement, and then to just sit back and wait while the political situation in Ukraine starts to implode for various reasons - well, he's got much of that already. If his plans are a wider incursion or the active stoking of upheaval through various subversive complications, then that could get a bit tricky. Basically, Putin wins if he looks strong and the West looks weak and he keeps control of the Crimea - he wins big time if Ukraine starts to unwind politically and he can peel off in addition a few eastern provinces, possibly even Odessa, while leaving the burden of a dysfunctional and economically vulnerable west for the EU and Obama to deal with. Real wildcard here is if there's an exchange of fire between Russian and Ukrainian troops resulting in significant loss of life - that could send things spiralling in very bad ways that could easily outpace Putin's ability to contain the damage.
[does Obama purportedly telling Putin that he's on the wrong side of history pretty much sum up why Dear Leader is just such a disaster foreign policy wise? Saying something like that tells me that Obama has zero objective insight into what history has to teach and is therefore trapped by the arrogant myopia of a liberal ideologue's narrow and self serving view of history and its meaning, as if he's saying to Putin: my ascension and the full flowering of progressive enlightenment it represents are the true culmination of the western tradition and that you act in ways that do not comport with or openly defy that truth and the dictates thereof is a sure sign you're wrong and you should just admit to it and beg for our forgiveness. In other words, how dare you act in a way that casts doubt on the perfection of my vision. Do these people really not get that for China, Putin, most Muslim polities etc etc America and all it represents are increasingly the things on the wrong side of history and they intend to do all they can to make that belief a reality? And truth be told, that the greatest country on earth could elect to its highest office twice a man so utterly ill equipped to maintain and serve that greatness is a pretty telling sign that maybe Putin et al are right to think future history now belongs to them]