Fresh on the heels of in a provocatively unilateral fashion expanding its air security zone, an aggressive move that the US kindly in essence acquiesced to, China now has in the same manner expanded its claims in the South China Sea and in accordance with this decree is 'ordering' foreign fishing vessels to announce themselves and submit to possible boarding before entering into what China now views as its territorial waters. Nice.
People are of course fretting that this aggressive behavior could easily escalate into a confrontation - but think about it, it's becoming increasingly hard to believe that a confrontation isn't exactly what China wants - as this article points out, it looks like China wants to reap the spoils of a military victory without having to actually fight a war - ie they expect that if there is a confrontation their opponents will back down and they will in effect have gained control of the disputed territories. It's also getting very hard not to believe that this brinkmanship is a direct result of Obama's weak and submissive foreign policy - I predicted this might happen, that fearing the reprise of a strong Reagan replacing a weak Carter dynamic in 2016 China might conclude that now is the time to act while Obama's still in the White House - increasingly difficult not to see the shadow of that threat in what's going on here.
That article in The Diplomat also raises two other interesting points: without actual military victories, China can have no proud military tradition with which to rouse its people with; and without any real world experience in the practice of modern warfare, China cannot possibly master the means thereof - which amounts to a huge advantage for the US over China, a deficit which no doubt troubles the PLA to no end and again may lead to some decisions being made that will not bode well for any still holding out hope for China's peaceful rise.
People are of course fretting that this aggressive behavior could easily escalate into a confrontation - but think about it, it's becoming increasingly hard to believe that a confrontation isn't exactly what China wants - as this article points out, it looks like China wants to reap the spoils of a military victory without having to actually fight a war - ie they expect that if there is a confrontation their opponents will back down and they will in effect have gained control of the disputed territories. It's also getting very hard not to believe that this brinkmanship is a direct result of Obama's weak and submissive foreign policy - I predicted this might happen, that fearing the reprise of a strong Reagan replacing a weak Carter dynamic in 2016 China might conclude that now is the time to act while Obama's still in the White House - increasingly difficult not to see the shadow of that threat in what's going on here.
That article in The Diplomat also raises two other interesting points: without actual military victories, China can have no proud military tradition with which to rouse its people with; and without any real world experience in the practice of modern warfare, China cannot possibly master the means thereof - which amounts to a huge advantage for the US over China, a deficit which no doubt troubles the PLA to no end and again may lead to some decisions being made that will not bode well for any still holding out hope for China's peaceful rise.
