Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Here's my suggestion  on what to do about immigration reform and more specifically amnesty - propose to do substantial reform now [because let's face it the system is broken regardless of one's views on the over represented Latino influx] but leave amnesty as something to be taken up after the 2016 election. Two reasons for this, and I'd just come right out and state these reasons: one, don't trust Obama, hell, can't trust Dear Leader - the disaster that is Obamacare allows you to make this charge legitimately, ie make it without immediately being called a racist by the New York Times; and two, assuming the GOP does not succumb to a suicidal urge and nominate someone like Cruz or Paul in 2016 but rather intelligently goes with a broad appeal candidate that may also be a minority and possibly even a woman [I'm thinking of Martinez, Haley and Jindal here] who says all the right things on possible ways forward viz amnesty - having done that, let's see how Latinos vote in the election - if after having put forth a near perfect candidate Hispanics still overwhelmingly vote left, then that will be it, that will tell us that the doom sayers viz amnesty granting etc etc are right - that granting amnesty would forever move the country left and essentially ruin us.

That seems reasonable to me - if conservatives [mainly the business community seeking cheap, reliable labor] who support amnesty do so because they believe the GOP can appeal to Latinos with the right candidate, then let's put that belief to the test in 2016 before we agree to something that could radically change this country and not for the better.

Of course, two problems here: getting that perfect candidate unsullied through the Republican primary is going to be difficult, especially if Cruz is in the race throwing ideologically intemperate bombs everywhere [which is why I suggest taking the man on now and not waiting till the primary season is upon us]; and then the other vexing problem is an irreversible push of the country left is not the only issue with amnesty - there are a lot of studies out there showing the deleterious effect all this cheap labor is having on upward mobility in this country - and also, possibly related, studies showing that Latinos do not embrace higher education or education period as a way to improve one's lot in life the same way as Asians and other cultures do - so amnesty could prove a huge problem in a country that no longer has the industrial and manufacturing jobs available to support a low skill middle class.

In the end, hard to see any sane reason why a conservative - aside from the businessman searching for cheap, reliable labor for his gadget factory - would want to rush ahead with amnesty. Instead, let's state the problems associated with it openly and clearly and then propose a reasonable way forward. Again, the disaster that is Obamacare has created a rhetorical opening for the GOP despite Cruz's best efforts to ruin it - it'd sure be nice if conservatives could put that opening to good use.