So, given the amount of effort Obama will be putting in over the next few days to convince Americans that he actually has a clue, I'm guessing that means that my fading idea that this is all just a desperate political ploy is probably a little off the mark. Hell, he's even sitting down for Fox News, which is like Cheney writing an op-ed for Mother Jones. Also, given this effort and apparently the graphic videos he's going to show to make his 'point', I have to assume that also means that if he loses the vote he's going to move ahead regardless - I mean, you can't play an emotional card like showing videos of dead children and then not act. Certainly, if it's a no vote and he indeed doesn't act, then that will mean I was right, it was a political ploy.
Anyway, prediction time - I see three likely scenarios. A few days of bombings, probably no more than three, and then things just continue on as before - which will result in America looking quite foolish. A few days of bombings, Assad comes out with his own video show of dead children and then he ups the ante, mounting a large offensive but with conventional weapons - this makes America look foolish and weak, since I see no way that Obama matches that ante. And then of course the worst scenario of all - Syria, Iran [with Hezbollah in tow] and Russia choose to see the missile strike as an act of war and then things really start to get interesting - America is in big trouble if it plays out that way because if they take the bait that quickly turns into the nightmare scenario of regional war - but if Obama backs away, he becomes a president that neither friend nor foe can take seriously anymore. Which is why I'm leaning to the last as most likely - and I've read people who study strategy who think the same, postulating [with direful foreboding] that if Iran sees an opportunity here to really stick it to America then they may not be able to resist taking that chance.
[which of course leads to the really big question: if the last scenario plays out, Obama backs away and Iran looks like the exultant victor, how does Israel avoid coming to the conclusion that they now have no choice but to attack Iran's nuclear assets? Oddly enough, meditation on that outcome may be the thing that causes Iran to back off from the doomsday scenario]
[there is a fourth option: that the rebels turn this into a wider war by using US strikes as an opening to launch a massive sort of Tet offensive type thing, which forces Assad into desperation mode, and then everything madly escalates from there - and good luck containing that]
