Problem for China is - and this was pointed out to me by a wise Marine - but it’s so obvious once you think about it - problem for China is they wield no soft power - no one wants to be them, be like them, speak their language, mimic their ways, dynastic China of a thousand years ago was a much more influential power than the Middle Kingdom of today - sure there are autocrats out there who would like to copy the Chinese way of centrally managed capitalism, they’d like to believe they can maintain their dictatorships and be economically successful at the same time - but no one wants to be China - everyone wanted to be America - they envied the freedom, the way of life, the opportunity, the cultural artifacts, the music, the movies, the language, the intoxicating energy of the place - America had [and still has] soft power galore - so to a lesser degree did England, although as a traditional imperial power that’s a complicated story [but what is India without the British Raj - not that it's all that much to write home about with it] - do a poll now of Hong Kong and ask if they wished they were still under British rule rather than Chinese and we know what their answer would be. Rome had soft power - although possibly that’s to stretch the definition of it a bit too far - but reality is regardless of the brutal wars on the Gauls etc etc when the nascent states of Europe had thrown off the domination of Rome they still wanted to be like Rome - Latin remained the language of officialdom, they retained or imitated its laws, its civil mannerisms, its architecture - and they embraced its church.
So China has no soft power to wield, and that’s a problem - not just for them, for us. Geography is not their friend - like imperial Germany they’re an aspiring great power with economic clout but hemmed in and surrounded by enemies and peer or near peer competitors who don't trust them and in some cases outright dislike them. Not to say that China is destined to follow the same path of imperial Germany - but would be foolish to pretend it’s not possible, no? After all, if China cannot extend a dominating influence beyond the island chains then great power status is like to elude them - and without soft power, the only way to gain that influence is either through economic coercion or military force. And that’s a problem, for them and for us.
