Friday, February 8, 2013

Hey, maybe the PLA should think about getting some practice in on North Korea - I jest of course [?] but tongue not entirely cheeked - I’m thinking of two things here - possibility that China is getting sick and tired of NK’s unending game of crazy - and then fact, that I’m guessing troubles the PLA greatly, that no matter how quickly they run in trying to catch up to the US military one deficit they will struggle to overcome is huge advantage in practical, real world operational experience when it comes to the modern way of war that the US military holds over them - hell, the US [with some help from the Wehrmacht] essentially invented the modern way of war - and has a damn lot of experience making it work - last time PLA saw any real world experience of war was more than 30 years ago against Vietnam and they got their ass kicked - so this must be a deficit that does not sit at all well with the mavens guiding Chinese military wherewithals.

Now of course, to my mind anyways, China has encouraged the crazies of North Korea - they obviously saw an upside to them developing missile technology and nuclear technology - and I say that because even though they chastise them for these developments they don’t really do anything about it - no punishment follows, which I interpret as encouragement. But now there is possibly an indication, with NK talking about another nuclear test and releasing absolutely deranged sounding diatribes against South Korea and the US, there’s an indication possibly that China’s starting to become uneasy with the provocations and heated rhetoric, as if they fear that spurred by some incident things could quickly spin out of control - or maybe they fear that Lil’ Kim is vulnerable to being roughed up by the military and consequently forced into some highly regrettable missteps.

So get in a little practice and invade the country - you know China has plans should such a thing become necessary - chaos could come to the Hermit Kingdom in a relative flash and it’s not like China would stand there and do nothing, if only because they don’t want South Korea, a US ally, filling the void and encroaching on their border.

Now I’m talking a bit of silliness here, sure - still, this wide experiential gap separating the PLA and the US military has got to be a concern for them - and for us too - yes, in one sense it’s to our advantage - but on the other hand I’d say it sharply increases the chances of a serious miscalculation by the PLA that leads to something nasty that easily could have been avoided. Then again, China invades North Korea and it goes well, could lead to some dangerous over confidence - and let's not forget the message a highly efficient take over of North Korea would send to China's competitors viz the pivotal island chains.

Of course, on second thought, assuming this farfetched scenario ever played out, China would be in a position of essentially owning North Korea - putting them then in the position of having to say no to a reunification with the South - which would never happen [at least I don't think could ever happen] - so, fun to think about but, ah, forget everything I said - well, except for that experiential gap separating the PLA and the US military - that problem is real.