"... well, a status quo by definition is not sustainable since it presumes the things it isn't but will perforce become - but I quibble - the question is what existing state are you talking about, ours or theirs? And how many theirs are there? Because Israel has a set of parameters all its own [quick, someone construct a game tree]. Anyway, one existing state will eventually out last the others. Now, I don't know the Ayatollah's view of game theory but still we can guess one thing with modest certainty here I think: unless you're kneeling on a carpet with Khamenei several times a day and talking nonsense with him over tea and flat bread it's very hard to know what he [they] really want to win and what exactly he is [they are] willing to risk to get it - or, alternatively, what exactly an acceptable loss from their [his, its] point of view would look like viz negotiations.
We can extrapolate from prior actions and guess at what such says about the motivations that brought the regime to this point and then speculate on how fungible or pliable if at all those motivations may prove in the end or the likelihood those motivations through political upheaval or intrigues might be overturned by a less annoying 'something else' [the putative Arab spring has not filled me with optimism when it comes to 'the good' wrought from political upheaval in the lands of Allah] - and extrapolating thusly I don't hold out much hope for sanctions [nor does the history of sanctions extrapolate well for those fond of fancying otherwise].
So the real questions become: does the Obama administration actually believe in the efficacy of the sanctions or rather see them as a probably doomed but necessary state one must be seen occupying before moving on to the dreaded inevitable next - or are they merely playing a delaying game - and if so, is that game designed to win an election or to take Israel out of the mix? Most importantly, if Israel extrapolates Iranian behavior as cynically as I do, given their perception of the status quo - do they trust Obama to do the right thing as they see it when it comes to that - or do they think instead they're being played? My guess its the latter - in which case, are they now simply waiting to see who wins the election...?"
