Would my opinion of Obama change if he were to attack Iran? Two stories came out today that seem to suggest either Obama or Israel or both are indeed very serious about not letting Iran nuke up - apparently Obama sent a message that sounds like an ultimatum through Russian diplomatic channels to Iranian brass telling them they have till April to respond positively on demands to step down their program - and then very much under the radar a Navy officer in a senate committee meeting let slip that the US now has four minesweepers in or on their way to the Persian Gulf, which according to some Navy analysts I read suggests the US is definitely preparing for something bad. This is either a very hard edged bluff or Obama actually really means it when he says he has Israel's back - even if only a bluff, the severity of it suggests the Obama administration believes Israel has already decided to do this thing if something doesn't happen soon to convince them otherwise.
I'm so used to seeing Obama as a person whose every act is motivated solely by political calculation [whether to promote a leftwing agenda or promote himself through a leftwing agenda, I dunno] that even though I know it's absurd [right?] to read a political component into something so dramatic as this, should he actually do it, I still can't give the man the benefit of the doubt. Regardless, if he goes there, I will have to reevaluate him.
That being said, I don't think he does it - I think this is probably all about putting as much pressure on Iran as possible and knowing full well that's likely to fail, and then being prepared for the shit storm that will follow. I think this means that Obama has finally figured out that for Israel it's a perfectly logical thing to view an attack on Iran as yes dangerous, full of peril, unpredictably bad in all sorts of ways, and yet still necessary.
[the report of the ultimatum passed through Russian channels is being denied - the deployment of significant naval assets though is quite real. Also pay attention to recent act by SWIFT, a huge financial institutions communications supplier based I think in Brussels - it has shut down, by EU decree, services for Iranian banks etc - which from what I read means Iran cannot do international banking anymore, which means I guess they can't engage in normal trade practices etc etc. Seems this would significantly ramp up pressure on the Mullahs, to what end who knows. Also I would guess ramps up pressure on Russia and China to help Iran circumvent this virtual blockade or publicly disavow support for them - cause a blockade which this is essentially amounts to an act of war by the EU on Iran. If we get to the end of April and Iran still hasn't caved gotta believe tensions will be dramatically spiking. Should we expect Iranian backed terroist attacks against Brussels, the EU homebase? I dunno - don't know what to expect at this point, other than it's likely to be bad whatever it is]
