Saturday, January 14, 2012

My impression was the story going largely unnoticed, which seems both odd and not so much - the story being China purging some 70% of content from TV broadcasts for the sin of being too contaminated by Western culture, indeed of seeming to promote our values over those of the PRC - the order was given that Chinese culture was the superior culture and television programming must now reflect that.

This an interesting development for a few reasons. For one, a dramatic reminder that China remains a closed society whose attributes and aspirations are still largely dictated by and under the ultimate control of a communist ethos. That western media passed over the story as if it were a mere curiosity suggests we've spent so much time and effort convincing ourselves that capitalism will transform China into a nonthreatening image of us that we're now just simply assuming that has actually happened. If this the case the PRC overlords would view this as a significant victory on their part - score one for the scions of Sun Tzu.

Another interesting element of the story is that this action is clearly motivated by fear - but fear of what? Could it be the Chinese economy is much more fragile than the neo-mandarins are letting on? Are they worried that an economic downturn could spur social upheaval and therefore the television edict is a preemptive attempt to reestablish tight control of the population? One can read articles that are bullish on China and articles that are bearish - both can't be right - I find myself more persuaded by the sceptics who contend that a bursting real estate bubble, a looming banking crisis, a shit load of bad debt seeping through cracks in the politburo's 'everything's fine, nothing to see here' facade of stolid competency, and a sharp decline in demand for Chinese manufactured goods caused by a worsening Euro crisis - this all coming to a head and spelling trouble.

Like I said, there are China bulls and bears, and for a non-specialist it's hard to figure which tracks closer to the truth - but then that underscores the real problem - truth - closed societies must religiously control information - truth therefore is the enemy - or put another way, doubt is the demon they must constantly guard against - an oppressive authority's legitimacy cannot survive the spread of doubt through the thing it hopes to oppress. The neo-Mandarins are therefore in the business of forever shoring up the illusion of legitimacy. This why it would not surprise me at all if the vaunted Chinese economic miracle is only half miracle - the other half being a steaming pile of bull shit.

Accordingly, one might expect to see, with the leadership changes rapidly approaching and bringing with them the uncertainty natural to such things within closed systems, a stark ramping up of nationalistic zeal.