horse of george

If Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons as an existential imperative, the only way sanctions can possibly dissuade them from this action is if the existential threat raised by sanctions is equal to or greater than the one that motivates the nuclear imperative. It's very unlikely sanctions can ever rise to this level, especially since it would no doubt require the coordination of all the world's signal powers in a unified effort to that end - this is already not happening [see China, Russia, India] and it's very hard to imagine that dynamic changing. Therefore, it's logical to conclude that those clinging to sanctions are either naive, delusional, putting on a show for political purposes or dearly hoping that the compromised sanctions now threatened will prove punitive enough to cause the Iranian people to rise up and remove the current regime - problem with that dubious scenario is that unless the social upheaval is so great as to also sweep away the true overlords of Iranian power and aspirations, the Imams and the Republican Guard, or barring that highly unlikely thing great enough to force the Ayatollahs and Guard to dramatically recalibrate their strategies, then getting rid of Ahmadinejad adds up in the end to nothing much. It is therefore also logical to conclude that there are only two outcomes here that don't defy credibility: a military intervention; Iran with the bomb and all the strategic nightmares that ensue.