Saturday, December 3, 2011

Maybe I should welcome Gingrich's emergence as serious contender, and not for reasons previously expressed - no, because unlike with Cain who I considered an ignorant huckster fool and therefore a joke and embarrassent to any party, any nation for that matter willing to indulge his delusional bid for the presidency, Gingrich actually knows stuff and can engage in a somewhat substantive and modestly intelligent debate about that stuff - what's more, in order to divert attention from his many flaws he's going to have to be on the offensive so as to keep the base ever amused by his anger etc etc which apparently is all they seem to care about - which means Romney, who has clung to a desperate game of playing it safe for the very good reason that the uber right will not forgive him one single misstep, will now have to parry and attack and step up his game in response - which means it could get interesting, there could be some fine fireworks on display.

And in that regard I see that Gingrich has challenged Romney to a Lincoln/Douglas styled debate and Romney has turned it down - that won't work to my thinking - I understand why team Romney wants to avoid such a thing: the base is looking for any excuse to bury Romney therefore he would not only have to perform well in the debate, he'd have to actually palpably win it. But I don't think they can avoid this challenge - no doubt they're making the calculation that all those skeletons in Newt's closet are eventually gonna come tumbling out and scuttle his bid - and that's probably true - only problem is Newt may somehow cobble together enough discipline to keep that closet closed just long enough to get the nomination. It would be at that point a third party challenger emerges [since I see no way Gingrich beats Obama] and, as I said, would not surprise me at all if that challenger ends up being Romney [you don't think losing to Gingrich would tarnish Romney? Possibly, but he can cast the uber right as villain in that loss which will of course hurt him with some conservatives but will also increase his appeal with independents and disgruntled moderate democrats].