horse of george

"... Syria... I would tend to see the Arab league as a tool of Sunni aspirations - if they've moved against Syria it's because the Saudis have decided time is right to hope for a Sunni uprising in Syria that thwarts Iran's regional ambitions... of course a Sunni insurgency in Syria equals bloodbath which is why the Alawites will not be swayed by sanctions or any other pleas of peace... they realize there is no peace at the end of this road: it's either continued Shia repression or a bloodbath... and then of course a Sunni/Shia bloodbath will necessarily draw Iraq and Iran into things - which is why I have trouble seeing Turkey committing to a military option in any significant way... a regional war is in the offing here and even though Erdogan's behavior over the last year indicates he has a grand vision for Turkey as leader of the Muslim world, I gotta believe fear of a wider war would cause him to be cautious about getting too deeply involved in Syria... regardless, if Obama is thinking of a Lead From Behind, Part II he's nuts - Part I was a travesty as far as I'm concerned as the beginnings of a civil war are already percolating to the surface... stable democracy is nowhere in Libya's future, count on it... but there'll be no leading from behind option in Syria... of course that doesn't rule out the delusional from imagining one into existence.... maybe Bernard-Henri Levy is is hunkered down in the Cafe des Artistes right now scribbling another love letter to Susan Power... and hey, let's not forget the Russians, they'll have something to say about all this... oh, and China... build a naval base in Australia will ya.... well, suck on this... and let's not forget, Iran's regional ambitions are also China's in that they see their America-countering sphere of influence stretching from Pakistan, Afghanistan etc etc right on through to the Mediterranean... for my part I listen to the Israelis when it comes to perspective here because of course whatever happens will impact them in an immediate and dramatic and probably very dangerous way... and they've made it clear that for all the reasons they might have to wish for Assad to go bye bye, they fear even more an enraptured Sunni uprising in Syria lead by the Muslim Brotherhood... all along Israel has seen the Arab Spring for exactly what it is - the lifting of a lid from a jar full of devils..."