Pentagon released its analysis of Chinese military modernization efforts - these things in last decade(s) have been notoriously bad, as in significantly underestimating the state of PLA upgrades - I've only browsed through it, but others with much more expertise than me seem so far to believe no egregious flaws jumping out - other than continuing attempt by Pentagon to say out one side of its mouth that China isn't a rising threat while out the other that they are - a perfunctory dance that I guess is necessary but is also starting to seem a bit silly - can't believe either side is much fooling the other at this point - but I suppose ambiguity has its sundry uses for both - China [that is gov't sponsored editorial] has of course declared that the Pentagon is way out of bounds with it's declarations even though what China is up to is pretty much obvious to anyone with a brain and an internet connection.
One phrase though did jump out at me - that China lacks operational expertise - in other words, they may be acquiring the tools of modern war making, but they have no real world battle experience of putting those tools to good use - in other words, they've paraded, they've done the pep rallies, but haven't played an actual game yet. China's only significant military experience of the remotely modern variety was Korea and then briefly against Vietnam in the late 70's - but those experiences are of little to no relevance when it comes to 4th generation war, war as it has existed since Iraq, 1991. That's a big shortcoming, a significant roadblock to modernization if the point of that modernization is to compete with the vastly more experienced, battle tested and operationally vetted US military [and of course that is the point of the modernization - not that I'm saying China seeks war with America - rather, they want control of their corner of Pacific - at least that - and so their goal is to either gradually force the US out through various stratagems and intimidations and opportune alliances or, should hostilities come, to quickly get the advantage so as to convince America that pursing a military solution to the disagreement really wouldn't be worth it]
The upshot being here - if China truly wants to catch up to the US it needs to fight a war, several probably. Lucky for China, life being the perverse thing that it is, as an ambitious, rising power, war will inexorably find them out - such is the way of all flesh. Unfortunately, these 'wars' will also inexorably run up against American interests, directly or by insinuation - possibly forcing a charge into the breach betimes the readiness for such - and let's not forget, inexperience can foment an irrational enthusiasm for the thing not known.
But let's set aside jingoistic imponderables - what if China attempts to go the full Sun Tzu? And by that I mean taking Sun's dictum of the best victories being those won without having to actually fight for them, taking that dictum to its absurd extreme - if they never fight how can China ever truly modernize relative to the US? No doubt their heavy investment in cyberwarring is an attempt to address that paradox - still, sets up an interesting dilemma: either they truly modernize which means fighting wars and dealing with the complications and dangers arising thereof, not the least of which is inevitable conflict with American interests; or they eschew with Tzu, avoid the wars by means of other stratagems but by doing so fail to truly modernize and therefore remain vulnerable viz the US - with that vulnerabilty being dangerous not necessarily because it incites the US, but rather because it incites a wary and possibly paranoid delusional PLA to act rashly over some perceived slight or aggression - and remember, as I've remarked on before, there's a strong likelihood that the Politburo will increasingly come to rely on the stoking of hyper nationalism to control or subvert domestic problems - a dangerous combination that: autocracy, a strident sense of national purpose and unschooled militarism.
[Of course, this can all be rendered meaningless if Obama gets his way and turns the American military into the emasculated police force leftist European intellectuals have been dreaming about for awhile now - why do you think liberals are crowing about the false 'victory' in Libya, asserting it as proof of a new model for American military engagement?]
