OBL killed - I find the news somewhat anticlimactic - what immediately struck me was news coverage, CNN and the like, who wanted to stress the idea that Obama showed 'courage' etc to launch raid without permission from Pakistan - but all the analysis I've read from security experts suggests it is highly unlikely Pakistan wasn't involved and that any official story claiming the opposite is merely cover for Pakistani pols - indeed the makeup of the compound and its location in an area containing significant Pakistani military assets suggest not only that it seems unlikely US would have attempted a covert air insertion into such a sensitive area without cooperation from Pakistani military but also that the Pakistani military has been protecting Osama all along and for reasons not yet clear decided to finally give him up - point being liberal press very quickly trying to contrast Obama and Carter here - remember the failed Iranian hostage rescue that came to seem symbolic of Carter's inept leadership.
Don't know why my first thought was this - probably cause I realize it is indeed a victory for Obama no matter how contrived his connection to it is - and the slavish way the press rushes to milk this victory is galling - suppose I should get over though, kind of petty - although fact remains OBL's death not really that important, satisfying sure, but not important - he passed on leadership of AQ to youthful subordinates several years ago - he was essentially in retirement and waiting no doubt for this end which he probably saw as inevitable - the real story remains: has Pakistan known where he was all along? why give him up now - ie, did the CIA finally track him down and give them an ultimatum? or has some deal been struck about other things? what will the fallout be if the cover story doesn't hold? is it possible the harboring of OBL was an independent operation run by Pakistani intelligence services without gov't knowledge? if so, what would that mean? and finally, impact on war in Afghanistan: make things worse? better? provide the pretext for Obama to get the hell out?
update: still few details but lots of questions. If Pakistan cooperated, why then a risky helicopter insertion? Deniability, possibly - but roping in from some Blackhawks at night while under fire isn't easy - would we be willing to risk that in order to supply cover story for Pakistan? Not impossible I guess, but if Pakistan was cooperating some sort of ground assault seems in order - but of course there'd be no denying complicity then. The compound was nestled into a relatively nice neighborhood [for Pakistan] just down the road from a military installation in a town where Pakistani military officers go to retire - plus, the compound looked like a place that was obviously trying to hide something - how could the Pakistani military or Pakistani security services really not be in on this? Did the CIA find proof of duplicity on part of Pakistan while uncovering Osama's whereabouts and that's why we went in without letting them know? Fact is, no one knows how many similar operations of this type have happened and we never heard about them because they came up empty - Pakistan would have no reason to advertise such by complaining about it publicly. Still, hard to see how you move noisy helicopters that far inland through fairly militarized areas and not run into some opposition - seems a bit improbable, especially when you add in fact one of the helos was lost - I mean, how did the crew and troops on that chopper manage to exfil on what would have been a very overloaded remaining chopper? Seems likely another chopper was called in or had been standing by for just such a purpose - is it really possible all that happened and choppers managed to make the long trip back to Afghanistan without the Pakistani air force or air defenses ever being alerted? We're not talking stealthy F-22s here whirling off into the night at mach 2 - we're talking very unstealthy and relatively slow moving helicopters. Seems impossible - but then again I really have no idea what capabilities JSOC has so may indeed be completely feasible.
update: apparently area where compound was located was in a highly controlled air defense corridor - in other words, very unlikely Pakistan did not cooperate in some way with this raid - and indeed some reports coming out now indicating that the copter that crashed was in fact Pakistani, not American - also reports coming in that American troops didn't rope in but rather breached a wall while a helo hovered overhead supplying fire support. Indications troops ferried in on Chinook, not Blackhawks, which if true would seem to guarantee Pakistan involved because no way you're moving a Chinook into a highly defended area like that without someone noticing.
Again, there are several good reasons to wonder about the role Pakistan played here, both in the operation and possibly their protecting Osama all these years - but right now I'm merely interested in the fact of how the press immediately started painting Obama as a 'great leader' in authorizing this raid by focusing mainly on dubious assertion that Pakistan wasn't in on it and therefore the mission was fraught with dangers if it failed or otherwise went awry - in fact CNN has an op-ed up stating how this makes Obama's leadership now unassailable - but if Pakistan was in on this the decision was actually quite easy to make since many of the 'dangerous' variables would have been removed - not suggesting of course it was a walk in the park - but neither, assuming Pakistani cooperation, was it the most daring covert op ever - which is how the MSM is clearly trying to paint it for the sake of glorifying Obama.
