Don't pay attention to Ackerman anymore since his JournoList affiliation and activities were revealed.
The pursuit of COIN only makes sense if America plans on remaining the dominant economic and military power in the world - COIN only matters because of America's global significance and the foundation of that significance is conventional military power, not COIN - COIN exists because of conventional power - if that status quo cannot be maintained then COIN is ultimately a waste of time. Given present circumstances is conventional dominance coupled with unending COIN-like engagements really possible while China rushes forward with a valid plan to undermine the former without having to entangle itself in the latter? That's the real question to be answered, because if the answer is no then the ultimate winner in Afghanistan will be China, not us.