Good post but you essentially miss the point - Israel's existential situation comes down to two fundamentals. Firstly, there's a large demographic out there that wants to see Israel fail - because of anti-Americanism, anti-semitism, the naive posturing of liberal ideologues and of course your Islamist fascists - whatever, the dominant opinion in the world is anti-Israel - therefore, what choice does Israel have other than to do what it's doing? The alternative is extinction - sure, it could tolerate some moderation maybe, but even a small movement towards appeasement risks inviting extinction - so Israel has no choice [although they obviously need to shake up their military establishment because it keeps making mistakes that simply shouldn't be happening] - therefore when you say Mr Rothkopf that Israel is now backed into a corner and must change, I don't see how that can or should happen - it'd be like telling a pitcher who just blew out his elbow that he's gonna have to learn to throw with the other arm - that's simply not possible - he either fixes the arm or he retires.
And secondly, and of most importance probably - is America's view of a viable Israel as a linchpin to its regional and overall security - as long as America continues to see a 'strong' Israel as vital, nothing changes - and so the question to ask is what would motivate America to back away from Israel? Well, obviously, oil ceasing to be a prime energy source would certainly not be good for Israel - although since oil exporting Muslim states would also decline accordingly, that could prove a wash from Israel's point of view; possibly an Obama-like president who out of a delusional arrogance hands a long sought victory to the radicals in the region by pulling the plug on Israel - but even though Obama has been test driving that approach, one imagines there'd be an outright insurrection on the right in this country if he or someone of his ilk ever followed through on it so can't really see that happening; and world opinion - but would an America that still saw Israel as a linchpin to its own security ever abandon Israel because of something as enervating and unsavory as 'world opinion'? Hard to believe.
So, Mr Rothkopf, I don't see this turning into a watershed moment - or rather, if it does turn that way, expect it to be an ugly, unpleasant and uber dangerous shedding - if you're caught on the banks of that river you'd better be a damn good swimmer.
