"... possibly - but extremely unlikely Israel will be waiting til after 2011 to strike if it's gonna strike - Israel no doubt feels compelled to wait for sanctions Kabuki dance to stumble to inevitable unsatisfactory terminus before making any final decisions on military intervention, but that ugly end will come long before SOFA expires.
Much more likely Iran wants the US out - but an accurate understanding of true nature of current relationship between Iran and Iraq would be required to make predictions here and I'm guessing all parties are waiting for fallout from elections to be made clear before committing to any one strategy - ie smart players here will be keeping several irons in fire.
Likewise, you're assuming there will not be a significant American air presence working alongside Iraqi troops post SOFA - again, you have to wait to see how post election dynamics play out before any reasonable speculation is possible concerning post SOFA Iraq.
Of course, you're an Obama 'fan' and who knows what foolhardy policies he'll pursue. Given his performance viz health care reform and his seeming willingness to turn the democrats into the minority party in 2010 for the sake of a highly dubious ideological 'victory' it appears a safe bet to guess that Obama will not mind losing or not even running in 2012 - so won't he want to go out a hero of the left wing so he can hit that lucrative lecture circuit as the black avatar of a preposterous idealism?... hard to predict what insane initiatives such license will engender..."
