horse of george

No silver lining without a cloud - possible downside of reform movement in Iran succeeding in toppling gov't? Many downsides I imagine, but pointedly this: reformers inchoate, incoherent agglomeration full of mixed signals, mixed intentions, mixed goals, mixed aspirations - a ragged but apparently resilient coalition - very likely to split apart if successful, leaving it to be taken over by elites and power brokers who the world will see or want to see as reformers but in actuality won't be that enthused by much of the 'reform' agenda - specifically, will still want to pursue nukes but because they can work under cover of being seen as 'progressives' we'll have no chance of stopping them - and then, after period of confusion and disarray and infighting, Republican Guard reasserts dictatorial control - but now they have the bomb. That's how something that seems encouraging could end up being quite the opposite.