Wednesday, December 16, 2009
"... at this point I'd be willing to speculate that the only way to win in Afghanistan is by losing... what I mean is, the initial invasion was a success, everyone agrees on that, with far fewer troops than are committed now and some help from the Northern Alliance, we sent the Taliban running... the mistake made was that we didn't stop them from running and they disappeared into Pakistan where they continue to operate and recruit from today... Pakistan remains the problem since success seems impossible without their help and they won't commit to helping because they don't trust we're actually going to finish the job and they feel the Taliban is a good alliance for them to maintain should Afghanistan devolve into civil war again once we leave... which is why Obama setting a deadline for leaving was such a huge mistake... if Pakistan won't help then chances for victory are thin, if not non existent... so recreate the initial conditions by losing... lure the Taliban back from Pakistan, let them expose themselves by taking over again, secure Pakistan's support in locking down the border, drop thousands of American troops into the mountains to close off escape routes, and then redo the invasion... recreate the conditions on the ground that initially allowed for success but fix the crucial flaw... of course, it could never be that simple and the Taliban may not be the same animal regardless, they may not be as easily displaced this time... still, if you can't draw the Taliban out into the open, win Pakistan's support and shut down that border to a sufficient degree, I can't see how you win anything resembling a lasting victory in Afghanistan, especially with the restrictions regarding time and numbers that Obama has placed on the mission..."