Friday, November 27, 2009

I'm curious - I don't know if someone has considered this - they must have, it seems so obvious - I just don't recall reading anything addressing my concern or curiosity here - namely, with all this gaming going on between China and the US re climate change policy, emission goals etc etc, doesn't it seem likely or at least suspiciously not unlikely that China is pulling the US into a trap here, a trap that the US can't back away from without looking bad? I mean, why would China be so interested in environmental concerns? Seems a highly counter intuitive initiative on their part to me - hell, it's not an open society or transparent polity, if they say they plan to reduce emissions by 20% or whatever how will it be possible to confirm the truth of their claims? Everyone knows they lie about military expenditures, about real GDP numbers, about the true state of their banks, about public health concerns, about social unrest - we're suddenly just going to take their word on climate initiatives? Especially, when viewed objectively, it's hard to see why they'd be so interested in putting constraints on their industrial output, the very thing driving their economy? Sure, I'm a sceptic by nature and am always prepared to doubt the sincerity of somthing, but I have trouble understanding why a person wouldn't be sceptical about China's intentions here.

Of course, the problem is figuring out how luring the US into a trap that hobbles its economy is to China's benefit [pushing America increasingly towards enervating European style policy positions certainly comes to mind - social welfare, state intrusion everywhere, high taxes, sentimentality - these things are not helpful if you're America] - given short term economic concerns China trying to drag the US into some kind of statist inertia doesn't seem in their best interests - but as regards long term geo-strategic considerations? I could see how they may think that long term advantages outweigh short term disadvantages. I don't understand the parameters of the global economy well enough to figure out how everything would or could play out here - I certainly hope though that the people who do understand the fine print are as fond of scepticism as I am.