Waiting for the 12th Imam - if the real point of contention between the looming military dictatorship and the putative reformers in Iran is the true role of the clergy in governance while they wait for the 12th Imam - the reformers believing it should be muted, Khamanei and A--- not so much - and not at all about liberalizing the theocracy, then what would that say about what reform would look like should the 'radicals' succeed in unseating the status quo? One's tempted to say any change enacted would be superficial, cosmetic - but the Republican Guard is a wild card - you could see a 'reform' chain reaction that leads then to social upheaval that leads to martial law - I could also see a scenario where the reformers gain control but out of fear of what demons they've unleashed become just as reactionary and repressive as current regime and in likewise fashion crawl into bed with the Guard - but regardless my point is if all that separates the reform from the status quo are protocol questions having to do with the 12th Imam, well then what does that say about the prospects for and nature of some hoped for reform?
Related, I also wonder: if present regime manages to make Iran a nuclear power I imagine that will leave its authority unassailable - does it then follow that the reformers have a deadline if they want to get something done? And if so should we then be more interested in giving them a helping hand? Of course, since Obama was given the Nobel for being willing to engage with bad people, for apparently being able to engender a brave new world simply by talking about it, I suppose he won't be doing that - besides, as I said, the dynamics involved here are hard to predict - I'm just saying there appears to be an opening there that probably should be examined.
