... this turn of worm was easy to predict during primary and presidential campaigns of Obama - he clearly became a 'hawk' on Afghanistan because he believed he needed to show some foreign policy gravitas, a certain comfort level re the use of military force, in order to sway dubious moderates and independents. Iraq obviously wouldn't do seeing as he had opposed both the war and the surge that ostensibly saved it. No, it had to be Afghanistan - but he had no idea what he was committing to, probably didn't in a sense even care - just wanted to win an election and no doubt thought he could talk his way out of anything if he had to. This guy was always an uber liberal who believed he could use his putative powers of persuasion to convince [fool] the not so liberal segments of the polity to just 'trust him' when push came to shove. His rhetorical commitment to Afghanistan was in keeping with the superficial gloss that has marked his rapid rise.
But now reality intrudes and fantasy, as always, is forced to fall away. His poll numbers are down, the press, once obsequious towards him, now seems somewhat less timid to question. Having backed himself into a corner, what will he do? Can't blame Bush - he made a campaign promise to correct Bush's abandoning of Afghanistan - how can he now abandon it himself? But if he makes a commitment to step up the effort he abuses the sympathies of the left to which he owes his political fortunes, sympathies which the record shows fit best his own inclinations. Is it in this man to forge a policy that is not beholden to a particular ideology - in other words, if the right thing to do is to stay the course in Afghanistan, will he do that even if it makes him unpopular among the crowd he wants most to be popular with?
Obama's election was the culmination of a well crafted illusion - the important question has always been what happens when that illusion is no longer viable? Obama deliberately embraced Afghanistan, for cynical and deceitful reasons as far as I'm concerned - it will be poetic justice if ends up paying a dear price for it. Unfortunately, though, we'll all end up paying that price.
Personally, I've always believed Afghanistan was a lost cause - mainly because I think there are only two options, go big or go small - we keep trying for some magical middle ground typified by the unreasonable championing of COIN, but I see that as a delusional attempt at compromise: you can't win a war like this and leave the underlying culture intact - you either accept the brutal consequences of that and go big or accept the limitations that culture places on you and go small.
But regardless of what's the right thing to do now I think it's important to realize that Obama's position has always been a phony one. Whether or not that continues to be the case, suppose we're gonna find out...
